928
FXUS61 KBTV 162336
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
736 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm weather will continue through midweek. While chances for
isolated to scattered showers return on Friday and Saturday,
high pressure will quickly build back over the North Country to
support more dry weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 719 PM EDT Monday...No real changes needed to the forecast
this evening. Temperatures have begun to drop, with most
locations in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Clear skies can be seen
across the forecast area, although some high cirrus clouds
associated with the coastal low by the Carolinas can be seen to
our south. Overall, the forecast is in good shape.

Previous Discussion...The Rex Block pattern that has kept our
weather sunny and warm day after day will continue into Tuesday.
A corridor of slightly more humid low level air, featuring
valley dew points mainly in the low to mid 60s, is focused over
our region today. The heat and humidity is helping to generate a
lot of fair weather cumulus in our higher terrain, but strong
ridging aloft will cap these clouds through the rest of the day
such that no showers are expected. We`re struggling to mix down
the dry air aloft, however, which is keeping temperatures
slightly cooler than forecast.

Tomorrow a subtle shift of low level winds to more of a
westerly direction is forecast during the day, but really for
most purposes the sensible weather will remain the same so highs
will likely be about the same as today. The persistent, large
ridge in place will minimize cloud cover and 850 millibar
temperatures look similar if not slightly higher than today. We
had been anticipating some increase in high altitude clouds
associated with the tropical/hybrid cyclone near the Carolinas,
but the system has trended farther south such that this cirrus
that moves into our area will tend to be scattered rather than
opaque. As such, it still may effectively be sunny, especially
as one goes farther north/east in New York and Vermont. Any
cloud cover will not impact fog formation, which should be
rather robust overnight given slightly higher dew points than
yesterday. Then tomorrow night, marginally lower surface
moisture points to less coverage and duration of fog but
generally.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Wednesday and Wednesday night will continue
to feature quiet weather with warm temperatures for Northern New
York and Vermont. Maximum temperatures will reach the lower to mid
80s on Wednesday, with minimum temperatures then only dropping onto
the 50s to around 60. Winds will be light with partly cloudy skies.
There will be some chance for showers south of our forecast area as
remnants of tropical system pass along southern New England coast.
High pressure riding over our area should keep all of this activity
to our south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 318 PM EDT Monday...Mainly dry weather will continue from
Thursday through Monday. Could see an outside chance for an isolated
light rain shower on both Friday and Saturday, but for the most part
no significant weather is anticipated. Really strong ridging remains
in place over the region. Temperatures will trend back towards
seasonal normals during this period, but mainly dry weather
continues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions currently prevail at all
terminals, with clear skies and calm or light terrain driven
winds. Another night of fog development is expected, with
IFR/LIFR conditions expected at KMPV and KSLK. Conditions
tonight look to be more widespread compared to yesterday, so
KMSS and KEFK may also see some lower flight categories due to
fog. After the fog dissipates, VFR conditions will prevail for
the remainder of the forecast period with light winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Kremer