Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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980 FXUS61 KBTV 261429 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1029 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Periods of rain will continue into this morning, before tapering off from northwest to southeast later in the day. Dry weather will mostly prevail from tomorrow into the start of next week, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain a bit above climatological normals. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1024 AM EDT Thursday...Rain continues to fall across the forecast area, though the St. Lawrence Valley is beginning to dry out. Throughout the day today, rain will continue to shift southeast and out of the forecast area. Main adjustment was to remove lightning from much of the forecast today as convection has yet to really fire up. There is the potential for some convection this afternoon, but overall thunder chances are lackluster. Otherwise, forecast is on track. Previous discussion below: Previous Forecast...A shortwave trough is passing through this morning and an associated surface low will bring periods of rain. A southern stream low will be unable to phase with it, so the rain will move out relatively quickly. Currently, rain is beginning to fill back in and the steadiest/heaviest rain will fall late in the night through about mid-morning. There will be just enough elevated instability that a couple isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. A 30-40 knot low- level jet is currently passing overhead and it is leading to gusty winds in places, particularly on Lake Champlain. However, relatively consistent precipitation is prevent efficient mixing, so many areas are seeing relatively light winds despite it. The low-level jet will move out this morning and winds will diminish throughout the day. Beginning in the late morning, the rain will taper off from northwest to southeast as an occluded front moves through. The mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will dry out quickly after the frontal passage. However, moist low-levels and slight cold air advection will cause some lingering low clouds, and an isolated shower is possible in northern areas behind the front. Skies should at least partially clear tonight, but blocked flow may keep them in some places. Boundary layer winds will also go light, and with plenty of recent rainfall, fog development is likely in any of the climatologically favored areas that clear out. Friday looks mostly dry, though diurnal heating could cause an isolated shower in the Northeast Kingdom. Temperatures will continue to be a bit above climatological normals during this period, with low tonight in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and highs tomorrow in the mid 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 351 AM EDT Thursday...Upper air pattern acrs the eastern CONUS for late week into the weekend is rather complex with two closed cyclonic circulations and a building ridge of high pres. Guidance conts to indicate a dry weekend is anticipated with temps trending back above normal, especially by Sunday into early next week. For Friday night, still some uncertainty on areal coverage of fog potential as some high clouds could impact our cwa from the south, but given recent rainfall anticipate likely (60-70%) probability of fog in favored areas. Lows generally in the lower 40s to lower/mid 50s on Friday night. High pres is building acrs the northeast CONUS with dry conditions and comfortable temps on Sat. Progged 925mb temps btwn 12- 14C support highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with light winds. Little change is anticipate on Sat night with additional fog possible, but still watching the potential for high clouds and potential impact on areal coverage. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 351 AM EDT Thursday...For Sunday into early next week very quiet wx is anticipated with above normal temps has mid/upper lvl ridge builds acrs southern Canada and northern New England. How decaying mid/upper lvl trof acrs the Ohio Valley/Mid Atlantic interacts with approaching northern stream trof for midweek and associated timing of precip is the challenge. For now given the uncertainty on magnitude of digging northern stream trof and strength of decaying trof to our south, have kept pops in the chc (30-40%) range for now. Developing southerly flow wl help advect warmer air into our cwa with progged 925mb temps btwn 14-16C on Sunday and Monday, supporting highs well into the 70s. As the gradient tightens ahead of approaching system for mid week a period of much above normal temps for overnight lows is likely either Monday or Tues night, depending upon frontal timing, before slightly cooler temps arrive for mid to late week. By Weds/Thurs temps try to return toward normal with modest low level caa behind sfc boundary. Highs mainly in the 60s with lows in the upper 30s to mid/upper 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 12Z Friday... Periods of rain will move through today. The heaviest showers will briefly lower visibilities to MVFR, though a few may be able to lower visibilities to IFR. Rain will taper off from northwest to southeast during the day, ending at MSS by mid- morning and RUT by late afternoon. Ceilings will gradually rise today and most should be VFR by this evening. Fog development is likely tonight in the climatologically favored airports of MPV, SLK and EFK, though it will be possible at any of the rest. Winds will be southerly this morning, before gradually changing to the west during the day and into the evening. Winds will go light tonight. LLWS was present at most terminals overnight but it will weaken below the threshold quickly this morning where it has not already. Outlook... Friday: VFR. Patchy BR. Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. && .MARINE... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect into the early morning, with strong south to southeasterly winds between 15 to 30 knots. Wave heights will range between 3-5 feet on the broad waters. Winds will lighten during the day today, becoming more westerly between 10 to 15 knots. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Myskowski NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm SHORT TERM...Taber LONG TERM...Taber AVIATION...Myskowski MARINE... Team BTV