812
FXUS61 KBTV 242326
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
726 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After another day of mostly dry weather today, the next chances for
rain arrive tomorrow through Thursday as a series of fronts move
through, before drier weather returns for the end of the week. After
a brief cool down on Wednesday, temperatures will return to near
normal for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 723 PM EDT Tuesday...Increasing clouds and chances for
showers this evening ahead of approaching frontal system. No big
changes for the evening update. Temperatures will drop into the
mid 40s to mid 50s, and showers will increase in coverage from
west to east overnight. Previous discussion follows.

It`s been a dry and seasonably warm day across the region
today, albeit a bit cloudy than the last couple of days. The dry
weather will come to an end this evening as an upper level
trough over the Great Lakes pivots eastward towards Quebec, with
the accompanying surface low and associated frontal boundary
following, bringing a wetting rainfall to the region. Cloud
cover will continue to increase as we head into the evening and
overnight hours before showers begin to push into northern New
York and slowly work eastward late tonight. Although the showers
will be fairly widespread as they move in, the will likely wane
in coverage as they move into the Champlain Valley, although
they will become more numerous late in the Wednesday and
continue into Thursday. A few rumbles of thunder may be
possible, especially across northern New York, but instability
is rather limited for any severe threat. Rainfall amounts will
generally be between 0.5 to 1.25 inches of rainfall, with the
highest amounts seen across the Adirondacks and the spine of the
Greens. Winds will be rather breezy, especially Wednesday
evening as a low-level jet moves overhead especially across
Vermont and Lake Champlain with gusts between 20 to 25mph.
Temperatures tomorrow will be on the cool side, with daytime
high temperatures generally in the upper 50s to low 60s as cool
maritime air is ushered in from southeasterly flow. Overnight
lows Wednesday night will be on the milder side due to increased
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation, with temperatures in the
upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...An upper level trough will slide into the
forecast area on Thursday, bringing more precipitation in two parts.
First, a warm front is expected to be crossing the area Thursday
morning, bringing 50-80% chances of precipitation with highest
probability of rain in the Champlain Valley and east. Low topped
thunderstorms are still possible, mainly for the St. Lawrence
Valley, as models are projecting up to 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE across
northern New York Thursday. Modeled precipitable water values drop
throughout the day Thursday, decreasing PoPs into the afternoon.

However, a cold front will sweep through as well, bringing a renewed
chance of precipitation later in the day. Total additional
precipitation will be around 0.10-0.50 inches. The day should start
out slightly gusty as well out of the south, but winds will decrease
throughout the day, turning more westerly by Thursday evening. West
of the Greens, the warm front may allow temperatures to climb
slightly above seasonal averages in the upper 60s to lower 70s,
though areas east of the Greens may remain closer to climatological
normals in the 60s.

Thursday night and Friday may see some light lingering and wrap-
around showers. PoPs drop off quickly Thursday evening, but there is
still about 20-40% chance of some showers Thursday night into Friday
morning. Lows will take a hit in the Adirondacks Thursday night,
dropping into the 40s, otherwise lows in the 50s are expected for
most elsewhere. Friday, temperatures will be around seasonable in
the mid 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...After light lingering and wrap-around
showers in eastern Vermont taper off Friday, high pressure will move
in to replace the previous upper low, and we begin another extended
stretch of drier weather. Temperatures will generally be slightly
average with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the mid
40s to mid 50s. Fog formation continues to be a possibility each
night under light boundary layer winds and clearing skies. Next
chance of precipitation will be early to mid next week with models
showing discrepancies of timing of a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions will prevail at all
terminals for the first half of the forecast period. Cloud cover
is expected to increase overnight ahead of an incoming frontal
boundary that will bring showers to the region, arriving at
KMSS/KSLK around 07Z and continuing to move eastward. Some MVFR
ceilings are expected towards 12Z as the showers continue to
move in. Reductions in visibility may also be possible with
these showers. Winds will generally be south/southeast between
6-12 kts throughout the forecast period, with some gusts around
15 kts possible during the afternoon. Some LLWS may be possible
at the end of the forecast period as a low level jet moves
through the region, especially across northern New York.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer/Neiles