226
FXUS61 KBTV 260239
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1039 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a day of showery weather, more widespread precipitation will
move through later tonight into Thursday, with drier weather
returning for the weekend. After today, temperatures will be rather
seasonable for the remainder of the period.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1039 PM EDT Wednesday...Forecast largely playing out well
with rain widespread across far eastern New York and all of
Vermont. Heaviest rain over the last few hours moved
northeastward through a couple of swaths of the region, roughly
Ticonderoga, NY into central Addison County and near Willsboro,
NY into central Chittenden and Lamoille counties. As expected,
rainfall rates have stayed moderate with estimates of 0.1 to
0.2" per hour in the heavier rain. More showers are blossoming
upstream with excellent dynamics and plume of water vapor
lifting northward, so lulls in rain overnight may last for only
a few hours before more rain returns. Have cut back PoPs into
chance category where appropriate on hourly basis, but it is
tricky given the strong forcing for rainfall.

Previous Discussion...
After a round of showers this morning that broke the dry
stretch across the region, a lull in precipitation can be seen
this afternoon. The upper trough centered over Ontario will
continue to dig into the Great Lakes, before closing off and
moving eastward along the international border. This feature,
along with more favorable moisture and dynamics will bring more
widespread showers to the region this evening, but especially
during the overnight hours. A frontal boundary moving through
the region will be the driving feature for showers on Thursday.
With PWAT values near 1.5 inches, some heavier downpours will be
possible during the day tomorrow. Expected rainfall totals will
generally be 1-2 inches with some locally higher amounts in
spots that see several rounds of heavier showers. Some ponding
in poor drainage areas may be possible, but the rainfall amounts
should be quiet manageable given the dry antecedent conditions.
Precipitation will come to an end Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front as drier air quickly moves in, although some
lingering moisture may be enough for a few isolated showers
given the proximity to the upper low.

In addition to the precipitation, some breezy conditions can be
expected this evening and possibly overnight hours, especially
with the current lull in precipitation. A Lake Wind Advisory has
been issued for Lake Champlain for this evening and the
overnight hours. As more widespread rainfall begins to move in,
the mixing potential will become more limited, and by tomorrow
the winds will abate and becoming more westerly behind the cold
front. Temperatures tonight will be mild with the precipitation
and overcast skies, with lows generally in the 50s. Tomorrow
will be a few degrees warmer than today for most of the forecast
area with temperatures in the 60s to even some low 70s in the
St. Lawrence Valley, although eastern Vermont will remain cool
again in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...As low pressure pulls away into
Atlantic Canada Friday, some wrap around moisture and
northwesterly flow could produce a few light, insignificant
showers in the Northeast Kingdom. Have in PoPs up to 15-25%.
Otherwise, dry weather with potential lingering low clouds are
expected throughout the day. Highs are expected to increase
slightly from Thursday into the mid 60s to lower 70s, still
quite close to seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Wednesday...High pressure is expected to build into
the region this weekend into early next week. This will allow
temperatures to sit slightly above climatological normals through
Tuesday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 40s
to mid 50s. Dry weather will also be the theme under high pressure
through about Tuesday. Sunday looks to be the warmest and sunniest
day of the period. Each night under the high pressure and light
winds, there is the potential for some patchy valley fog, but this
could depend on each night`s sky cover.

Models are coming into better agreement on a cold front producing
our next round of precipitation on or around Tuesday night (30-50%
chance of rainfall), though the potential for a slower arrival of
rain exists with some chances on Wednesday (20-40% chance of
rainfall). Ensembles are indicating there is still a relatively low
chance of 24 hour precip totals over a half an inch. This cold front
will also drop temperatures somewhat dramatically with highs
Wednesday in the upper 50s to lower 60s and lows Wednesday night
potentially in the mid 30s to upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Through 00Z Friday...Somewhat variable flight conditions are
expected with a mix of mainly VFR and MVFR conditions across
terminals. Widespread showers at the start of the period will
mainly affect PBG/BTV/RUT, and expand northeastward to cover MPV
and EFK in the 02Z to 04Z period. MVFR visibilities are
expected with this rainfall. Expect MVFR ceilings at
RUT/EFK/MPV to persist, although heights may fall below 1000
feet at MPV after 02Z, with greatest chances of IFR conditions
in the 09Z to 14Z period. Meanwhile, VFR/MVFR conditions at SLK
for much of the period will trend towards IFR in the 12Z to 18Z
period as flow becomes more southwesterly/upslope.

Surface winds across the region will generally be from the
south/southeast between 6 to 12 kts, with rare gusts up to 20
knots due to stable conditions near the ground. LLWS will be a
concern at northern New York terminals early in the period,
expanding eastward into the remainder of the terminals between
06Z and 10Z, before diminishing by 18Z.


Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.MARINE...
A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for this evening into early
tomorrow morning with strong south to southeasterly winds
between 15 to 25 knots expected, with wave heights between 3-5
feet expected on the broad waters. Winds will begin to abate
tomorrow, becoming more westerly between 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kremer
NEAR TERM...Kremer/Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Kremer/Kutikoff
MARINE...