899
FXUS61 KBTV 180152
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
952 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue over the next week with no
significant chances for rainfall expected. Warmer than normal
temperatures will continue through Friday, and then temperatures
will trend back towards seasonal normals.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 949 PM EDT Tuesday...No changes were needed with this
update. High clouds are drifting over the region this evening
and will continue to do so overnight. Clouds have been most
abundant over central/southern sections with more clearing
north, but do see some more breaks upstream. Hence we still
expect there could be patchy fog later tonight, even where
clouds have been a bit more persistent so far. Temperatures are
in the mid 50s to mid/upper 60s and are on track for the
previously forecasted lows. The forecast has this all covered
and remains in good shape.

Previous discussion...Ridge of surface high pressure will
remain anchored over northern New York and Vermont through at
least Wednesday night. Dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures will continue during this period. Fog development
is expected each overnight period, especially in the typically
fog prone spots. There`s some high cloud cover in place and
expected to remain overnight, but shouldn`t have too much of an
impact on our max and min temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...Warm and dry weather will continue
for Thursday and Thursday night. A low pressure system will pass
off the southern New England coast during this timeframe, but
only anticipate some increase in cloud cover for our forecast
area. Rainfall associated with this low will remain south and
east of our region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 244 PM EDT Tuesday...Really not much weather to talk
about in the extended portion of our forecast either. Currently
it looks like Friday will be the warmest of the period, with a
gradual trend back towards seasonal normal temperatures. Have a
slight chance for some showers on Friday as low pressure area
still continues to rotate off New England coast. Could see some
showers sneak northward into our area, but may just be an
increase in cloud cover as well. Surface and upper level ridging
are then expected over our area from Saturday through Monday
with dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Models are hinting
at next chance for precipitation in our region towards the
early part of next week as a surface and upper level trough
approach from the west on Tuesday. Being so far out in the
forecast, only have slight chance pops for now, but will
continue to monitor potential for a soaking rain towards the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 00Z Thursday...VFR to prevail much of the period, with
IFR/LIFR expected in another round of valley fog at favored
sites roughly 06z-12z. Best chances for fog will be at
KSLK/KMPV/KMSS, where visibility below 1sm and ceilings AOB 500
ft are expected. KEFK should remain MVFR in fog, though brief
IFR cannot be completely ruled out. Otherwise, just FEW-SCT high
clouds expected through the TAF period, along with light and
variable winds.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday: VFR. Patchy BR.
Thursday Night: VFR. Patchy BR.
Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Neiles
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Neiles
SHORT TERM...Neiles
LONG TERM...Neiles
AVIATION...Hastings