Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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758 FXUS61 KBUF 171911 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 311 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... While high level clouds will continue to circulate northwards across our region through Wednesday...high pressure will nearly guarantee that fair dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future. Daytime temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s each day...with many areas achieving levels in the lower 80s. Fortunately the overnight lows will remain at very comfortable levels in the 50s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Our cirrus cloud cover will remain in place tonight and actually thicken somewhat...as high pressure anchored off the New England coast will reach back across our forecast area. The cloud cover will be unfortunate in that there will be a underwhelming partial lunar eclipse of a Harvest Super moon. Just 8 percent of the top of the full moon will become dark...with the eclipse lasting from 10:13 to 12:47 AM. The peak coverage will be around 10:44. Otherwise...the weather promises to be uneventful with just the high clouds and mins in the 50s. While protective high pressure will continue to extend back across our region from the Canadian maritimes Wednesday and Wednesday night...a large upper level storm system centered over the southern Appalachians will further weaken and drift north off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will keep a fair amount of high level clouds over our region...but otherwise continued nice late summer weather will persist. Temperatures on Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the vast majority of the region. These temperatures are more typical for July or early August. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Coastal low pressure will dance off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday through Friday night. A mid-level ridge will be over the eastern Great Lakes region while deep moisture remains well east of the forecast area. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to southwest Friday through Friday night. Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s across the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area. Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid- West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend down but be above normal through the Long Term period. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions and light winds will be in place through the TAF period. The exception will be between 08 and 12z tonight when there will be some valley fog to contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally over some of the airfields of that area (ie. KJHW and KELZ. Outlook... Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10 knots most of the time. +&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RSH NEAR TERM...RSH SHORT TERM...HSK LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...RSH MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA