Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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555 FXUS61 KBUF 171046 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 646 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure anchored off the coast of New England will extend back across the lower Great Lakes through midweek, maintaining dry and warm weather across our region. The only difference from the past several days will be a thickening blanket of highs clouds that will push northward from low pressure drifting north from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. High pressure will build back providing more sunshine and continued warm weather for the remainder of the week and next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite imagery showing a shield of cirrus level cloudiness advancing across the region this morning, as upper level moisture streams northward ahead of weak low pressure over the Carolinas. This weak low will drift slowly northward through tonight which will support persistent cirrus level cloudiness across our region. Strong and persistent high pressure surface and aloft will block any deeper low/mid level moisture from moving much north of the Mason/Dixon line through tonight, keeping rain associated with the system well removed from our area. Despite the upper level cloud cover high temperatures today will still manage to reach the the lower 80s for lower elevations and mid to upper 70s for high terrain and the immediate shores of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Model consensus continues to trend even drier for the middle and latter portion of the work week as high pressure looks to remain in control across the lower Great Lakes, so much drier in fact that we are no longer expecting much of anything in the way of shower activity in the short term period for our area. Deeper moisture associated with a weakening area of low pressure that will now be located near the Mid Atlantic coast Wednesday, will be shunted southeast of our region as the low slowly drifts northeast along the Atlantic coast. By Thursday, the low will be located south of the southern New England coast. While this may bring some showers to southeastern New York and southern New England, northward progression of the system will all but cease as surface high pressure remains anchored across northern New England southwestward through much of New York State. This high will keep dry conditions in place across western and northcentral NY through Thursday night, although some mid and upper level cloud cover will be present at times. Daytime temperatures will remain at least some 10 degrees or so above average through the period with highs both days mainly in the upper 70s to around 80, with mid 70s across the higher terrain. Despite the warm daytime temperatures, longer September nights and comfortable humidity levels will allow the fairly large diurnal range in temps to continue with lows mainly ranging through the 50s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure will continue to dominate our weather across western and northcentral NY with mainly dry weather expected right through the upcoming weekend. That said, there will be weak backdoor cold front that will slowly approach our area on Friday from the northeast as high pressure builds back across the region from east- central Quebec southwest into New England. This boundary may possibly then possibly stall or slowly crawl from northeast to southwest across the area through the first half of the weekend, before the high finally builds a bit further southwest shoving the cold front to our west by Sunday. The main impact of this boundary will be a slow cooling of our surface temps with highs falling from the upper 70s to near 80 Friday and Saturday, to the upper 60s and low 70s by Monday, which is still a bit above normal for this time of year. Of no surprise the boundary is moisture-starved, so will keep PoPs below SChc at this point. Looking toward the tail end of the period, some of the medium range guidance is now showing the ridge finally breaking down sometime early next week, with the next chance for some precipitation possibly moving in as early as late Monday or Tuesday. && .AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Some patchy fog across the Southern Tier river valleys and east of Lake Ontario early this morning may bring some 4-6SM vsby restrictions to KART through 12z. A shield of cirrus level clouds will be across the region today as upper level moisture spreads north from a weak low drifting from the Carolinas to the Mid Atlantic. Outlook... Tonight through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Friday and Saturday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds under 10 knots most of the time. +&& .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/RSH/TMA SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...Hitchcock/TMA MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA