Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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036 FXUS61 KBUF 181725 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 125 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control across much of New York and northern New England keeping any shower activity associated with a weak area of low pressure meandering northeast along the Mid Atlantic and Jersey coastline off to our south and southeast through the second half of the week. A weak backdoor cold front will then cross the area from northeast to southwest toward the tail end of the work week with an even stronger area of high pressure building southwest across the area from eastern Canada keeping dry and only slightly cooler conditions intact right through the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Currently a mixture of mid and high clouds across portions of the area. Fair weather clouds are developing with daytime heating in areas where there has been clearing in the higher clouds. Temperatures are currently in the low to upper 70s, with the coolest temperatures toward the NY/PA line where clouds cover is more dense. Dry conditions continue through Thursday across the forecast area. The only exception to this is the very low potential for a isolated shower along and just north of the NY/PA border this afternoon. Light, widely scattered showers across northern PA are on the very northern fringe of a broken shield of precip. These showers are associated with a coastal sfc low along the NC/VA coast and a mid/upper-level low over the central Appalachians. Elsewhere today, further away from the NY/PA line, mid to high clouds will be in place, thinning from south to north. Mid level clouds will thin and showers move away from the NY/PA border later as the mid/upper level low both weakens and shifts northeast. Winds will remain light once again today with speeds of around 5 mph expected. Temperatures will remain above normal with afternoon highs in the low 70s to low 80s. With thicker mid and high clouds in place further south, temperatures will be a bit on the cooler side toward the NY/PA line and warmer for the North Country where more sun is expected. Tonight and Thursday, fair, dry weather will continue with the sfc high to our northeast, extending across the region. Cloud cover will decrease through the day on Thursday. The exception to that is some areas of morning low stratus across the Western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Some patchy fog will also be possible in both of these areas, but will also be dependent on lingering high clouds. Winds pickup some on Thursday afternoon out of the northeast, but should remain below 10 mph for most of the area. Temperatures tonight will be in the low to upper 50s. Afternoon temperatures on Thursday warm a few degrees from today`s values for areas south of Lake Ontario with less cloud cover expected. Thursday`s afternoon highs will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Weak low pressure south of New England will move little during the period. Deeper moisture associated with the coastal low will remain east of the area, as a mid level ridge continues to hold over the region. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast to southwest Friday through Friday night. Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area. Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid- West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend down but be above normal through the Long Term period. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions expected today through Thursday. Patchy valley fog across the Western Southern Tier will be possible tonight, lowering CIGs to IFR at times. Some additional fog will be possible near KART, with the weak northeast flow tonight. All fog potential will be dependent on cloud cover, currently expected to have at least some mid to high clouds across portions of the area. Winds remain light through Thursday out of the southeast to northeast. Outlook... Thursday night through Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain in control through the end of the work week maintaining a weak pressure gradient and thus mainly light winds less than 10 knots and negligible waves. This will also promote a weak onshore flow to develop each afternoon, with weak land breeze circulations dominating at night. A weak backdoor cold front will cross the Lakes late in the week. This will bring an uptick in the easterly flow for the upcoming weekend, mainly across Lake Ontario. However, winds should remain below 15 knots with wave heights remaining less than 2 feet (less than 3 feet open waters) across the western half of Lake Ontario. Negligible waves expected elsewhere. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...SW SHORT TERM...HSK/TMA LONG TERM...HSK AVIATION...SW MARINE...JM