758
FXUS61 KBUF 171911
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
311 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
While high level clouds will continue to circulate northwards across
our region through Wednesday...high pressure will nearly guarantee that
fair dry weather will persist for the foreseeable future. Daytime
temperatures will continue to climb through the 70s each day...with
many areas achieving levels in the lower 80s. Fortunately the overnight
lows will remain at very comfortable levels in the 50s.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Our cirrus cloud cover will remain in place tonight and actually
thicken somewhat...as high pressure anchored off the New England coast
will reach back across our forecast area. The cloud cover will be
unfortunate in that there will be a underwhelming partial lunar eclipse
of a Harvest Super moon. Just 8 percent of the top of the full moon
will become dark...with the eclipse lasting from 10:13 to 12:47 AM. The
peak coverage will be around 10:44. Otherwise...the weather promises to
be uneventful with just the high clouds and mins in the 50s.

While protective high pressure will continue to extend back across our
region from the Canadian maritimes Wednesday and Wednesday night...a
large upper level storm system centered over the southern Appalachians
will further weaken and drift north off the Mid Atlantic coast. This
will keep a fair amount of high level clouds over our region...but
otherwise continued nice late summer weather will persist. Temperatures
on Wednesday will once again reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for
the vast majority of the region. These temperatures are more typical
for July or early August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Coastal low pressure will dance off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday
through Friday night. A mid-level ridge will be over the eastern
Great Lakes region while deep moisture remains well east of the
forecast area. Light winds will become northeast behind a backdoor
cold front Friday. An uptick in clouds will increase from northeast
to southwest Friday through Friday night.

Temperatures remain above normal, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s
and lows in the 50s across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure will extend south Saturday through Sunday
which should maintain dry and warm weather across the forecast area.
Ensemble means show the pattern becoming more amplified early next
week across the Great Lakes region. A trough may dig into the Mid-
West with moisture increasing from the south. Showers may move into
the region Monday through Tuesday. Temperatures will slowly trend
down but be above normal through the Long Term period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and light winds will be in place through the TAF period.
The exception will be between 08 and 12z tonight when there will be
some valley fog to contend with across the Srn Tier and very locally
over some of the airfields of that area (ie. KJHW and KELZ.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern over the
eastern Great Lakes through the rest of the week, as weak low
pressure meanders along the east coast. The layout of the weak
pressure pattern over the eastern US and southeast Canada will
continue to promote mainly weak east/northeast flow on Lake Erie
and Lake Ontario for the rest of the week, with sustained winds
under 10 knots most of the time.

+&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH
SHORT TERM...HSK
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...Hitchcock/TMA