068
FXUS61 KBUF 151748
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
148 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will maintain fair weather tonight. Heat and
humidity will build Wednesday and Thursday and it will also
turn more unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected, with locally heavy rainfall
possible. Drier weather should return by Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will drift to our east tonight while continuing to
provide fair weather. It will be a warm night with lows ranging from
the 60s across the interior Southern Tier and North Country to the
lower 70s across the lake plains.

Heat and humidity build Wednesday. Temperatures along the Lake
Ontario plain, Genesee Valley and northern Finger Lakes around
90F or bit higher, combined with increased humidity should get
maximum heat indices into the mid to possibly upper 90s. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for these areas. Shortwave advancing
into the region will increase the potential for convection,
especially during peak heating. Severe threat looks to be
limited in an unfavorable shear environment, with the main
threat being the potential for locally heavy rainfall with
precipitable water values nearing 2 inches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Mild and muggy night expected Wednesday night with little
relief once the sun sets. Overnight temps slowly crawling back
into the low/mid 70s, maybe some spots seeing the upper 60s.

Another warm and muggy day Thursday ahead of the cold front. There
remains some timing issues with the cold front but expect another
round of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening.

The cold front pushes south and southeast of the Lower Lakes
Thursday night, with diminishing chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Turning cooler and less humid for Friday which is
looking like a really nice day. Highs on Friday will be 10F to as
much as 15F degrees cooler with a range of 70s across the region.

High pressure builds overhead Friday night with clear skies and
great sleeping conditions. Lows will be found in the 50s to low 60s
closer to the lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure overhead Saturday is advertised to gradually
exits off to our east but will continue to provide dry weather
across the Lower Lakes. Zonal flow aloft will then direct the next
shortwave east towards the Lower Lakes on Sunday, with increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms. High pressure returns for the
start the new work week promoting largely dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR through tonight. FEW040-060 will dissipate early this
evening leaving some patchy cirrus level clouds. Fog potential
looks limited, with low confidence of some Southern Tier valley
fog late tonight. Some lingering wildfire smoke may lead to
some 5-6SM in haze this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday and Thursday...Localized restrictions likely in scattered
to numerous afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

Friday and Saturday...VFR. Some early morning fog possible.

Sunday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions will continue across the lower Great Lakes through
tonight with light/variable winds.

A modest southerly flow will then develop following the passage of a
warm front Wednesday, but wind speeds should remain below 10 knots.
There will a risk of a few thunderstorms Wednesday, with locally
higher winds and waves.

The next chance for somewhat stronger winds will be Thursday
following a passing cold front, with southwesterly winds picking up
to 10-15 knots and waves building into the 2-3 foot range at times.
There will also be a potential for thunderstorms and associated
locally higher winds and waves during this time.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ001>007-
     010>012-019-020-085.
     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NYZ001>007-
     013-014.
     Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ008-013-
     014-021.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA