Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
048 FXUS65 KBYZ 250826 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 226 AM MDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday night... Currently, a 700 mb jet over NW SD under westerly flow is creating some training showers over SE MT. The chance of any strong thunderstorms remains low as mesoscale analysis and forecast soundings indicate an inversion present. For today, westerly flow will will dominate with a wave passing through northern MT bringing a weak front through the area. This will bring low PoPs (10-20% chance) to the southwest mountains. Ridging will begin to build in late today and begin to break down ahead of a Pacific low early Wednesday. Into Wednesday afternoon, southeast flow in the low levels will advect in warm air and moisture (PWATs ~1-1.2 inches). MUCAPE and 0-6 km shear values are looking spotty across the region with MUCAPE values below 1000 J/kg. CAMs generally depict scattered precip beginning over the south and west midday, spreading east through the afternoon. With this being said, general thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be in the 80s/low 90s with lows in the 50s/low 60s. TS Thursday through Monday... Ensembles continue to prog a Pacific trough and upper low to track from the Pac NW to the northern Rockies on Thursday, with an associated cold frontal passage during the afternoon. This will bring increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms (30-80%, highest in the west). With MUCAPE values upwards of 1500 J/kg, deep layer shear of 40-60 kts, and PWATs in excess of an inch, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening ahead of and along the cold front. The SPC currently has a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms over west and central zones, while the east is in a Slight risk. Highs on Thursday are forecast to range from the upper 70s over the west to the 90s over the east ahead of the front. Shower and thunderstorm chances stay in the forecast for Friday (10-40%, highest north and west) as the upper low slides east across the MT/Canada border. With lower heights, highs in the 60s to middle 70s are forecast for Friday. Winds look breezy as well with northwest winds wrapping around the low and through the area. NBM probabilities for wind gusts greater than 40 mph on Friday range from 40-80%, highest over the north and west. Latest NBM probabilities for 0.25 inches or more of precipitation for Thursday and Friday range from 15-50%, highest over the western mountains and foothills. Locally higher precipitation totals can be expected with convection. Snow levels drop towards 9000 feet Thursday night into Friday, so can`t rule out some snow showers over the highest peaks in the western mountains as well. Ridging builds back over the region for the weekend bringing mainly dry conditions for Saturday and most of Sunday. Highs look to range from the 70s on Saturday to the 80s to lower 90s on Sunday. By late Sunday, ensembles prog another upper trough to move into the region bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday. Temperatures are forecast to drop back into the 70s on Monday. STP && .AVIATION... Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over far southeast MT will continue to shift east into the Dakotas early this morning. Otherwise, VFR will prevail over the next 24 hours. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible over the southwest mountains late this afternoon and evening (after 21z). STP && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 086 057/088 062/089 054/073 047/078 053/085 058/079 0/U 01/B 26/T 31/N 10/U 01/B 56/T LVM 088 052/086 057/082 045/070 042/078 050/084 050/074 0/U 03/T 37/T 32/T 10/B 13/T 67/T HDN 086 054/091 060/092 053/076 046/081 053/091 056/081 0/U 01/B 25/T 41/U 10/U 11/B 56/T MLS 086 055/086 065/091 056/074 047/074 055/089 060/082 0/U 00/U 24/T 51/N 10/U 11/U 54/T 4BQ 087 056/089 066/095 057/077 047/076 055/092 060/082 0/U 01/U 23/T 41/U 10/U 11/U 44/T BHK 085 050/083 061/089 054/073 046/072 050/083 058/081 0/U 00/U 34/T 51/N 10/B 12/T 54/T SHR 087 053/089 059/092 050/075 044/081 053/094 055/081 1/U 12/W 23/T 31/U 10/U 01/U 35/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings