Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
678 FXUS65 KBYZ 290301 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 901 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .UPDATE... An upper low to our north and east continue to move out of the area. There are currently a few showers on the back side of the low that have mostly stayed in northeast Montana. A few showers to the east of Billings tonight can`t be ruled out although chances peak around 20%. High pressure is beginning to wrap in behind the low with winds out of the northwest. This is bringing cold air advection to the region along with a drying trend. This will lead to a quiet and cool night with temperatures in the 40s. Torgerson && .DISCUSSION... Rest of Today through Saturday Night... The area of low pressure bringing increased winds to the area today will gradually progress east into the Dakotas tonight. As this occurs, the winds will taper off from west to east this evening, and low chances of precipitation will continue into the evening for areas north of Billings (10-50% chance). Temperatures tonight will be cooler than last night with lows in the 40s to lower 50s. While most of the area will remain dry overnight, areas in southeastern Montana around Miles City, Baker, and Ekalaka will see low clouds with scattered light rain showers move in overnight (15-20% chance of precipitation). This activity will linger into the early morning hours in this area before skies clear across the area Saturday. Saturday will be a nice day with high temperatures in the 70s to 80 degF under clearing skies. Winds will be calmer, but breezy 15 to 25 mph winds look to pick up once again during the late morning and afternoon. Low temperatures Saturday night will drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. Arends Sunday through Friday... Sunday will be hotter as ridge axis shifts east and SW flow pushes 700mb temps up to near +14C to +16C. Places like Sheridan and Broadus could push 100F. The bigger story though is increasing ascent/height falls w/ approaching Pacific trof, combined w/ elevated pwats and instability (and a cold front), resulting in our next day of potential severe thunderstorms. A couple things to point out. Very warm mid levels will cool in our W/NW in the afternoon allowing for convection to get going...but in southeast MT capping is likely to remain in place thru the evening. Thus, it would appear the greatest potential for severe wx is across our west and north...and especially N/NE of Billings where ensembles show 1000+ j/kg of cape is likely (60-70% chance), with plenty of bulk shear. The day3 outlook from SPC shows a slight risk of severe t-storms from eastern Musselshell to Fallon. Monitor the forecast if you have outdoor plans Sunday afternoon & evening. By late Sunday night into Monday, the next shortwave and even cooler temps aloft arrive bringing a continued chance of showers and embedded weaker t-storms. Near to below normal heights and a series of shortwaves in WNW flow aloft will keep our weather active thru most if not all of next week. The progressive nature of the flow will limit our severe potential, but there is a good (30-50%) chance of showers and t-storms each day Monday thru Thursday. Friday offers some uncertainty as we may transition to drier ridging by then. Also, there may or may not be a break in shower chances Tuesday night into Wednesday w/ a brief period of ridging. Temps will be comfortable as we move into early July. Look for highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s throughout the work week. Though ensembles show plenty of spread w/ regard to heights and location of ridge axis, there is come consensus for a building western CONUS ridge next weekend. This would translate to typical summer heat moving into the following week. Stay tuned. JKL && .AVIATION... Northwest winds 15-35 mph will be common over the lower elevations through about 04Z before decreasing. Low clouds w/ MVFR ceilings are expected to impact areas east of KBIL beginning after 06Z and continue through early Saturday. VFR will prevail otherwise. BT && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 048/076 053/087 060/079 055/078 054/083 055/080 054/083 00/U 02/T 57/T 53/T 22/T 33/T 22/T LVM 041/076 049/085 052/075 047/075 047/081 049/079 048/083 00/U 15/T 78/T 63/T 22/T 23/T 22/T HDN 046/078 051/092 058/081 054/079 050/085 053/081 052/083 00/U 02/T 47/T 64/T 12/T 33/T 22/T MLS 051/072 055/093 062/081 058/078 054/084 056/079 055/081 22/W 01/U 64/T 34/T 11/U 33/T 22/T 4BQ 049/075 054/097 062/081 057/078 053/085 055/081 054/080 22/W 01/U 35/T 44/T 01/U 33/T 22/T BHK 046/070 051/086 059/080 054/075 052/082 053/078 052/079 22/W 01/N 53/T 24/T 01/U 33/T 22/T SHR 043/079 050/097 056/078 050/075 048/083 051/080 049/080 00/U 02/T 27/T 63/T 11/U 23/T 22/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings