Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
367 FXUS65 KBYZ 102145 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 345 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .UPDATE... The Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Carter county has been cancelled. The threat for strong storms has moved well east of the area. Any additional convection over SE Montana this afternoon/evening will be light and non-severe. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Today through Wednesday night... Current water vapor imagery is showing troughing over central MT with dry air building into our central zones behind a band of showers and thunderstorms. Radar is showing showers stretching from Rosebud Co down through Sheridan Co, WY, with a few weakening cells in the far southeast. Current SPC analysis shows the best effective shear (~40 kts) through Sheridan Co and southern Bighorn Co with ~1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Shear generally weakens and drops below 30 kts to the Dakotas border with MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg or less. Showers and thunderstorms are are weakening over Carter Co., with showers associated with the front to follow. High temperatures will be in the 70s to low 80s today. In summary, the threat for severe thunderstorms has ended for today. Tuesday, ridging and westerly flow wil build in, providing warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 70s to upper 80s. The Flood Watch for the Clarks Fork at Edgar and Belfry has been canceled. The Flood Advisory for the Beartooths and adjacent foothills remains in effect. Minor flooding of small creeks and streams remains possible. TS Wednesday through Monday... Zonal flow or weak ridging will be over the forecast area on Wednesday. High temps will be about 10 degrees above normal...in the 80s. Probabilities of hitting 90 degrees are highest at Billings and Sheridan WY (35%) with similar or lower values in the river valleys and SE MT. Tight westerly flow will produce gusty winds over the western foothills with western gusts of 25-35 mph. Cold front moves S through the area Wed. night with a 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms E of KBIL. It will be dry and cooler on Thursday under zonal flow. RH`s are progged in the upper teens in many areas. An upper ridge slides E through the area on Friday with SW flow behind it. Friday, there will be a 20-40% chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly W of KBIL. It will be windy in KBHK and Ekalaka per the ECMWF ensemble meteograms. It will also be hot with highs in the 80s to lower 90s, but low-level SE flow will keep RH`s up. The highest probability for hitting 90 degrees is in the river valley areas (50-80%). The SE flow will increase PWAT`s to 0.75-1.00 inches, and surface CAPE E of KBIL was forecast to be around 1000 j/kg...suggestive of possible strong storms. The SW flow aloft will bring scattered showers and storms to the entire area Fri. evening. SW flow continues on Saturday, with low chances of precipitation over and near the mountains and in the far E. 20-30% PoPs overspread the entire area Sat. evening. Saturday will be cooler than Friday. For Sunday through Monday, clusters had differing solutions with the next trough. Forecast had isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, and highs in the 70s both days. TS/Arthur && .AVIATION... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through 23z over SE Montana. Local IFR conditions in heavy rain are possible near precipitation areas, along with hail and strong wind gusts. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the area through tonight. Northwest winds will gust 20 to 35kts at times through mid evening before decreasing overnight. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 054/085 059/085 052/079 055/087 059/082 054/077 051/074 00/U 11/U 10/U 01/B 21/U 11/B 32/T LVM 047/084 051/081 044/079 048/084 051/080 046/073 044/071 01/B 11/N 00/U 02/T 21/U 12/T 33/T HDN 053/086 056/085 051/080 054/089 058/083 054/078 051/076 00/U 20/U 10/U 01/B 31/U 21/B 32/T MLS 053/085 060/084 052/079 053/089 061/083 056/077 054/076 00/U 20/U 10/U 01/U 31/U 31/B 42/W 4BQ 055/085 060/084 054/079 055/089 062/083 057/080 053/078 00/U 10/U 20/U 11/B 31/U 21/U 31/B BHK 049/082 055/082 048/078 049/084 057/083 053/078 050/076 20/U 10/U 20/U 11/B 32/W 22/T 42/W SHR 052/083 055/084 050/079 052/089 056/082 052/078 048/077 00/U 10/U 10/U 01/B 21/U 11/U 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings