Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
505 FXUS65 KBYZ 230734 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 134 AM MDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday night... Today will likely be the hottest day of the year so far, with many locations forecast to reach the upper 90s to near 100 degrees as ridging builds overhead and 700 mb temperatures warm towards 15-18 degrees C. Locations along the Yellowstone River valley from Billings and areas east are still the most likely to hit 100 degrees (40-80% chance). A late day shortwave and associated cold front will cross the area during the late afternoon and evening hours bringing a wind shift to the northwest and isolated to scattered high-based convection (15-30% chance, greatest over the north). There`s potential for a stronger storm or two across northern areas with MUCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg and deep layer shear values of 30-45 kts. Strong wind gusts and hail are possible with thunderstorms. The SPC currently has a marginal threat for severe thunderstorms for areas mainly north of US Hwy 12, with the better potential for stronger storms farther north and east into northeast MT. Behind the cold front, Monday will be a good 10 degrees or so cooler than Sunday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Weak energy streaming through zonal flow over the region may generate some isolated convection (20% chance) over the southern mountains Monday afternoon, and eastern areas Monday night. STP Tuesday through Saturday... Ridging in place Tuesday and Wednesday will provide warm and dry conditions for the region with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. Energy from an approaching Pacific NW trough will start to creep in Wednesday with a 15-30% chance for precip in the mountains and less that 20% chance for lower elevations. Warm air and moisture will advect in ahead of a front associated with dynamic troughing moving in Thursday. This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening depending on the timing of the frontal passage. Temperatures ahead of the front will be 80s to low 90s Thursday cooling to the 70s Friday. Ensembles generally have increased precip chances through Friday night with ridging or westerly flow building back in for the weekend. Temperatures will warm back into the 80s for the weekend. TS && .AVIATION... There is a low chance for isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms early afternoon for KBIL and KSHR, possibly affecting KMLS after 0Z. Gusty winds up to 35 kts are possible with any thunderstorm. VFR conditions will prevail. TS && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 098 062/089 057/086 058/090 063/088 055/073 050/079 1/U 20/U 10/U 00/U 12/T 43/T 10/U LVM 095 055/089 049/088 053/089 056/083 047/071 044/080 1/N 11/N 00/U 01/U 13/T 43/T 10/U HDN 100 060/090 056/088 055/092 060/090 053/075 048/082 1/U 20/U 10/U 00/U 12/T 43/W 21/U MLS 097 065/087 058/086 056/090 065/091 057/075 050/078 0/U 30/U 10/U 10/U 11/U 42/W 21/U 4BQ 098 066/089 059/087 057/091 065/093 057/075 050/079 0/U 20/U 20/U 01/U 11/B 32/W 21/U BHK 094 063/087 056/085 052/086 061/090 055/075 048/076 0/U 20/U 20/U 01/U 11/U 42/W 21/U SHR 097 060/092 055/087 054/091 060/092 051/073 045/080 1/U 20/U 10/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 20/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings