Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
305 FXUS65 KBYZ 241911 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 111 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday night... Zonal, westerly flow is settled in across the area today with high temperatures in the 80s and low 90s. There is some lingering moisture around with some modest instability, mainly in the southwestern mountains. As a result, the chance (<25%) for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms exists this afternoon and evening. The chance for precipitation moves into the far east late tonight bringing the chance (<25%) for an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Winds gusting in the 20s-30s mph are expected this afternoon and evening in the western mountains and foothills as a result of diurnal mixing. Ridging will begin to build back into the Northern Rockies on Tuesday, resulting in warm and dry conditions. High temperatures will be in the 80s to 90F. Overnight lows will be in the 50s tonight and Tuesday night. Matos Wednesday through Sunday... Ridging will continue to build over the area on Wednesday as temperatures climb into the mid 80s to low 90s. There will be decent Gulf Moisture streaming into the central and eastern areas on Wednesday with southeasterly flow. The probability for precipitation for much of the forecast area is in the range of 20-50%. While instability values are not very high, there could be enough in place for a few stronger showers and thunderstorms. An upper trough and associated low will move into the Northern Rockies on Thursday, bringing a cold front across the state in the afternoon to evening hours. A very warm day is in store prior to the frontal passage, with high temperatures in the mid 90s. The latest NBM probability for a temperature of 95F or greater on Thursday is 25-65%, highest for locations in the Yellowstone River Valley and the SE counties. With the arrival of the cold front, increased chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast. A better setup for widespread precip and potentially stronger thunderstorms is in place Thursday, with monsoonal moisture raising PWATs to 1-1.4" in the central and eastern areas. Models disagree on the extent of instability on Thursday, but high PWATs and 30-60 knots of deep layer shear should be more than adequate for some strong thunderstorms to form. The chance for precipitation will linger into Friday as the low continues to move east in NE MT/ Southern Canada. The current probability of precipitation across the area Thursday through Friday morning is 30-80% with the highest probabilities north of Sheridan County. Cooler temperatures are forecasted for Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. With the troughing, heights may fall enough for near freezing temperatures to be felt in the higher mountain elevations (>10kt). A few snow showers can`t be ruled out for the high peaks in the Absaroka/Beartooths and Crazy Mountains, overnight Thursday and Friday. The latest NBM 72-hour probability of at least 0.25" of total QPF from Wednesday morning to Saturday morning is 20-60%, with the highest chances in the mountains and along and north of US Hwy 212. Ridging will slowly begin to build back into the region again Saturday into Sunday, with warming temperatures and mostly dry conditions in store. Highs in the 70s on Saturday, climbing into the 80s and low 90s on Sunday. Matos && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail today through tomorrow morning. Westerly winds gusting to 30kts can be expected over the western foothills this afternoon, with gusts dissipating by sunset this evening. Isolated convection is expected after 20z this afternoon mainly along the southern border zones, initiating over the Beartooth mountains and moving across the Bighorn mountains early evening. Generally high based storms are expected with light precipitation and wind gusts to 40kts. KSHR is the most likely TAF site to see thunderstorms today (22-02z), but KBIL can`t be ruled out (23-01z). A storm or two may develop into the overnight hours along the eastern state line (KBHK), otherwise convection should diminish around 03z. Chambers && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 058/087 058/089 063/091 054/073 048/076 052/086 058/079 10/U 00/B 24/T 52/W 10/B 02/T 45/T LVM 052/088 053/087 057/084 046/070 042/077 048/085 052/074 10/U 03/T 36/T 42/T 10/U 13/T 56/T HDN 057/088 055/091 060/094 053/075 046/079 052/091 057/082 10/U 00/B 24/T 51/U 10/U 01/U 45/T MLS 057/086 056/089 064/093 058/073 046/073 054/090 060/080 00/U 00/U 33/T 51/N 10/U 11/U 54/T 4BQ 060/088 057/090 066/096 057/076 048/076 055/091 059/082 10/U 01/U 22/T 41/U 10/U 11/U 34/T BHK 055/086 052/085 061/087 055/073 045/071 050/083 057/079 00/U 00/U 33/T 61/N 11/B 11/N 54/T SHR 055/088 054/089 059/093 051/074 043/080 052/092 056/082 10/U 01/B 12/T 31/U 10/U 01/U 34/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings