Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
407 FXUS65 KBYZ 130825 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Billings MT 225 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024 .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday Night... Satellite imagery shows a dry zonal flow over our region with a train of weak showers exiting SE MT into NW South Dakota. Analysis indicated the showers were under the right entrance region of a mid level jet streak. This activity should be well east by sunrise leaving mostly clear skies. Heights are progged to build over the region today, but easterly low level flow will likely keep temps a little cooler than yesterday (upper 70s to lower 80s). Ridge axis shifts east and heights begin to fall later tonight. CAM`s hint at a weak perturbation in the backing SW flow with some weak isolated convection initiating late and tracking into the SW Mtns and possibly into the plains by daybreak (NBM has washed this out). This may not amount to more than sprinkles, but will include some 10-15% Pops later overnight. Any thunder will be very isolated and likely limited to the mtns. For Friday...SW flow increases across our region as a broad trough encroaches the Pacific NW coast. Diurnal destabilization and some energy in the SW flow is progged to initiate convection over our mountains which then moves into the plains during the afternoon and into the evening. MUCAPE values may reach around 1000 J/kg over portions of our east Friday afternoon into the evening with bulk shear approaching 30 kts. The best combo of progged ingredients occurs from Big Horn County to the Dakota border. (35% chance of 1000 J/kg plus >30 kts shear). So it would not be surprising to see some strong to marginally severe storms in this area late Friday. Some small hail and gusty winds are also possible back to the west including Billings. We will need to monitor for any increase in helicity which would signal a better chance of severe storms. Friday still does look like a rather warm day with probability of hitting 90 degrees ranging from 82% at Billings to over 90% in our eastern zones. While the strongest convection shifts east Friday night, models hint at some lingering isolated showers over the area. BT Saturday through Thursday... The extended forecast remains active with a cold front passage Saturday evening, cooler than normal temperatures to start the work week, and a potentially more widespread precipitation event Monday into Tuesday. With the cooler temperatures early next week, snow is possible in the mountains Monday into Tuesday (mainly in the Beartooth/Absaroka and Crazy Mountains). This may create winter weather conditions over the Beartooth Highway, so stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have plans along the Beartooth Highway early next week (more information below). Saturday will be warm ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect high temperatures to reach into the 80s to 90 degF, warmest in southeastern Montana. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front is expected to push through the region. This will bring the potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (15-50% chance, highest west and north of Billings). Along with this, breezy 15-35 mph northwest wind gusts can be expected with the frontal passage during the evening (strongest over the western foothills). Sunday looks to be a drier day early before the next system moves into the region for Monday and Tuesday. A lot of uncertainty remains in the track of the associated upper low at this time. This of course plays an important role on the precipitation forecast. With the uncertainty in mind, there is still a 40-75% chance of precipitation across the region beginning late Sunday and lasting into Tuesday night. This correlates to a moderate chance for at least 0.25 inches of liquid precipitation across much of the region and a moderate to high chance to see any accumulating snow over the mountains. At this time, the Beartooth Highway near the state line has a 50% chance to see at least an inch of snow, and US-14 through the Bighorns has a 20% chance to see at least an inch of snow Monday into Tuesday. Aside from the precipitation potential, temperatures Monday through at least Tuesday look to be cool with high temperatures remaining in the upper 50s and 60s. While Wednesday and Thursday may be cooler still, a gradual warming trend is expect for those days. Arends && .AVIATION... No significant hazards to aviation are expected. VFR conditions will prevail through today. Expect light winds to switch out of the east through the day today. Chance for showers increases over the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains late tonight into Friday morning. Arends && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 081 056/090 058/086 050/073 048/063 047/065 045/069 0/U 13/T 42/T 10/B 35/T 64/T 22/T LVM 079 051/086 052/080 041/068 041/058 039/060 038/067 0/U 14/T 34/T 11/B 46/T 65/T 33/T HDN 082 056/091 057/090 050/074 049/066 047/067 042/072 0/U 12/T 41/U 20/B 35/W 74/T 32/T MLS 080 055/092 060/089 052/072 049/063 049/066 045/069 0/U 01/B 41/U 40/U 35/W 74/W 32/W 4BQ 081 057/093 060/092 053/074 050/066 049/068 045/070 0/U 12/T 31/U 20/U 43/W 62/W 32/W BHK 079 050/088 057/089 051/071 047/065 046/066 044/069 0/U 02/T 42/T 50/U 44/W 74/W 32/W SHR 081 053/090 055/090 047/074 046/067 044/067 041/071 0/U 02/T 21/U 00/U 43/T 63/T 32/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings