Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
293 FXUS65 KBYZ 161554 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 954 AM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .UPDATE... In the wake of yesterday`s cold front, cooler and drier conditions are in place over the region today, but with breezy conditions for northern areas. Most areas north of Billings will likely see westerly wind gusts of 15-30 mph, while areas near Harlowton will see gusts into the 40s mph. Winds will remain breezy into the afternoon hours, decreasing and switching around to the northeast as an upper low slides across southern Canada, sending an associated cold front through the area. Have increased wind a bit this morning to match latest trends. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast remains in good shape. STP && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday Night... Today will be cooler and drier with high temperatures in the 60s to mid 70s. Expect breezy westerly winds to continue for areas north of Billings, with gusts into the 15 to 30 mph range common. Wind gusts around 40 mph are likely (75% chance) along the western foothills near Harlowton this morning as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies this morning will give way to increasing clouds this afternoon and evening as our next weather systems approach. The first system is a shortwave passage that will bring a 15-30% chance of precipitation back to southeastern Montana this evening through tonight. This activity looks to remain weaker in our area with light precipitation amounts expected where rain does fall. The second system is a more robust trough that will bring periods of more widespread precipitation to the state of Montana tonight into Tuesday. Because uncertainty remains in the exact track of the system, there remains quite a bit of spread in the precipitation forecast. The overall more northerly track does not favor the best precipitation falling in our area though, with better chances of more significant precipitation existing over north and central Montana. Regardless, chances of precipitation begin to increase over Park, Sweet Grass, and Wheatland counties this evening into tonight (15-30% chance), with the best chance of precipitation across the area coming Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning when there is a 60-90% chance of precipitation. By Tuesday afternoon and evening, drier conditions look to return. At this time, the whole area has a high chance to at least see some rain, but chances for a half inch or more of rain decrease to 60-70% for areas north of Billings, 40-50% for areas around Billings, and 20-40% for areas south of Billings outside of the mountains. With the more spotty nature of the activity Monday afternoon and evening over central and western areas (due to weak thunderstorm development), locally higher and lower amounts can be expected in these areas. Over the mountains, snow is expected generally above 7000 feet. Amounts look to be greatest in the Crazy Mountains (high chance for 4+ inches) and lowest in the Bighorn Mountains (moderate chance for 1+ inches). The Beartooth Highway also has a moderate to high chance to see at least 1 inch of snow (falling mainly Monday night into Tuesday morning). Outside of precipitation, cooler temperatures look to impact the region Monday and Tuesday. The spread in potential temperatures remains high Monday, but temperatures in the upper 50s to low 70s are currently in the forecast. Tuesday is more solidly cool with temperatures in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s and 50s tonight and mid 30s and 40s Monday and Tuesday night. Arends Wednesday through Saturday... Models have trended drier Wednesday through Thursday with better precipitation chances pushing further north into the CONUS border region. Zonal to SW flow aloft will prevail over southern Montana providing downslope warming and drying along with slowly increasing heights aloft. Precipitation chances increase Thursday night into Friday as another Pacific system approaches, pulling plains moisture in from the southeast. Precipitation chances of 40 to 60 percent are widespread in the forecast from early Friday through Saturday with good moisture, low level upslope flow, and instability with the upper low aloft. Temperatures will be in the 70s Wednesday and lower 80s Thursday ahead of the upper trof. NBM is still showing 80s for Friday into Saturday, but thinking these may be a bit high given the precipitation potential and cloud cover. Expect cooler highs heading into the weekend. Chambers && .AVIATION... Winds will increase again around 16z, more out of the west, with gusts 25 to 35kts into the afternoon. Cold front arrives mid to late afternoon with winds turning north to northeast, with gusts diminishing but sustained winds in the 15 to 25kt range. Flight conditions will be VFR ahead of the front. Scattered showers develop behind the front that may bring MVFR conditions into play after 03z Sunday evening. Chambers/Torgerson && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 071 051/066 045/064 043/074 051/080 057/080 058/083 0/U 14/W 64/T 12/W 12/T 23/T 42/T LVM 068 043/058 038/061 036/070 042/077 048/079 051/082 0/N 28/T 95/T 22/T 12/T 24/T 32/T HDN 073 048/069 044/065 041/076 049/082 056/081 057/084 0/U 25/T 74/W 12/W 12/T 34/T 42/T MLS 071 051/068 046/061 043/073 051/080 057/079 058/081 0/N 25/T 94/W 12/T 23/T 44/T 43/T 4BQ 072 053/072 048/061 043/073 051/079 057/079 057/081 0/B 34/T 83/W 12/T 23/T 43/T 43/T BHK 071 048/070 046/061 041/071 049/077 055/078 056/079 0/N 23/W 94/W 12/W 23/T 44/T 43/T SHR 071 044/075 040/063 038/073 047/080 053/080 054/083 1/B 24/T 73/T 12/T 23/T 34/T 43/T && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings