731
FXUS62 KCAE 270959
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
559 AM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Helene is currently moving through east central
GA. Widespread rain, flash flooding, very strong and gusty winds
along with isolated tornadoes remain possible through late this
morning. The storm will move west of the forecast area this
morning the northwest of the area this afternoon with
diminishing winds. Dry weather is expected Saturday into early
next week along with seasonal to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- Tropical Storm Helene marching northward through GA and
  passing west of the area early this morning
- Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the entire CWA. Potential
  for gusty winds of 50-70 mph, especially in the CSRA.
- Tornado threat continues with a Tornado Watch in effect until
  8 AM Friday morning.
- Caution urged for those traveling this morning

Through Friday Morning:

Tropical Storm Helene continues marching rapidly northward
through east central GA. CAE WSR-88D returns show widespread
rain across the area with regional network showing rain ending
across southern GA and some breaks in the rain nearing the
southern CSRA. Hazards through this morning continue to focus
on the very strong and gusty winds isolated tornadoes, heavy
rainfall, and localized flooding.

Wind: A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the entire
CWA. Tropical storm Helene has begun to weaken however maintains
a large wind field with tropical storm wind gusts across the
central Midlands through CSRA. Wind gusts between 50 and 70 mph
have been reported so far this morning with the highest reports
in the CSRA and southern Midlands. The strongest winds will be
crossing the area over the next couple of hours then begin to
diminish from mid morning onward as Helene moves away from the
area. Numerous power outages have been reported along with trees
and limbs down.

Tornadoes: With Helene passing to the west of the forecast area
the threat for tornadoes continues this morning. A tornado watch
for the entire forecast area remains in effect through 8 am.

Heavy Rainfall and Flash Flooding: Numerous locations over the
past 24 hours have received 4 inches of rainfall or greater.
Areas of moderate to heavy rain continue across the area and
falling on now saturated ground. In addition to the flooding
concerns additional rainfall will continue to soften area soils
increasing the potential for trees to blow over.

Late this morning through tonight...The remains of Helene will
rapidly track off to the northwest of the area, towards central
TN and KY through this afternoon and evening. Rainfall will be
by mid morning in the CSRA and early afternoon in the northern
Midlands and Pee Dee. Skies will be clearing through the
afternoon as drier air moves into the area with winds subsiding.
Tonight skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy with
winds finally decreasing to 10 mph or less early tonight. High
temperatures this afternoon will moderate somewhat with the
return of some sunshine ranging from around 80 in the west to
the mid 80s in the east. Low temperatures tonight will be in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key messages
- A closed upper low over the Ohio River Valley this weekend
  with a isolated showers possible north of I-20.

A closed upper level low pressure system over the Ohio River
Valley crawls eastward toward the Mid Atlantic States this
weekend. The best chance for isolated showers appears to be on
Sunday with the upper low directly to the north of the
Carolinas. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal
for the end of September.

The excessive amount of rainfall which continues to fall in
Upstate SC during the passage of TC Helene is expected to
increase river flows to minor to moderate flood stage this
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
- Drier and continued warm conditions expected next week.

A pesky closed upper level low pressure system moves offshore and
begins to open up on Monday and is gradually replaced by above
normal H5 heights. This should result in dry weather and
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above climatology for early October.
River levels should drop below flood stage by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions through the morning hours then returning to VFR
for the remainder of the period.

Tropical storm Helene will be moving west of the terminals over
the next several hours then away from the area this afternoon
and evening. Main concern this morning remains the very strong
and gusty winds especially at AGS/DNL where wind gusts have been
recorded up to 82 mph with the strongest winds yet to arrive at
CAE/CUB. Expect the winds to have peaked 12z at AGS/DNL/OGB and
14z at CAE/CUB with winds gradually subsiding through the
morning and afternoon hours. Vsbys and cigs will also be
improving from mid morning through the afternoon as moisture
with Helene pulls northwest of the terminals. Winds this evening
will be southerly around 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots then
decrease to less than 10 knots overnight. With the drier air
moving in and sustained winds fog is not expected tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ016-018-
     020>022-025>028-030-035-037-041-115-116-135-136.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-
     038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Flood Watch until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ040-063>065-
     077.
     Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$