136
FXUS62 KCAE 271604 AAA
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1204 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Helene is moving through the southern
Appalachians. The significant rain and tornado threat has ended
but strong winds will persist into the afternoon. Dry weather
is expected Saturday into early next week along with seasonal to
slightly above normal temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Messages:
- Tropical Storm Helene moving away from the region.
- Tropical Storm Warning remains effect for the entire CWA.
- Strongest winds have ended but potential for gusty winds of
  35-45 mph continue into early afternoon.

Tropical storm Helene is currently moving through northeast TN
into eastern KY. Satellite imagery showing some clearing across
southern GA with stratocumulus field developing across the
Midlands with surface heating. The worst impacts, heavy rain and
flooding, tornado threat, and very strong winds have ended
across the forecast area. However, observations are still
reporting sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts over 45 mph
across the region and a tropical storm warning remain in effect
into early afternoon. Likely will be able to drop the warning
this afternoon and be replaced with a wind advisory into this
evening.

Strong temperature gradient across the area with lower 80s
already reported across the eastern Midlands to lower 70s in the
upper CSRA and western Midlands. Temperatures may rise a few
more degrees this afternoon but widespread clouds should limit
how much warmer temps can go. Expecting high temps to range from
the mid 80s east to around 80 west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key messages
- A closed upper low over the Ohio River Valley this weekend
  with a isolated showers possible north of I-20.

Tonight skies will remain mostly clear to partly cloudy with
winds finally decreasing to 10 mph or less early tonight. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid 60s.

A closed upper level low pressure system over the Ohio River
Valley crawls eastward toward the Mid Atlantic States this
weekend. The best chance for isolated showers appears to be on
Sunday with the upper low directly to the north of the
Carolinas. Temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal
for the end of September.

The excessive amount of rainfall which continues to fall in
Upstate SC during the passage of TC Helene is expected to
increase river flows to minor to moderate flood stage this
weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages
- Drier and continued warm conditions expected next week.

A pesky closed upper level low pressure system moves offshore and
begins to open up on Monday and is gradually replaced by above
normal H5 heights. This should result in dry weather and
temperatures 3 to 5 degrees above climatology for early October.
River levels should drop below flood stage by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictions coming to an end however winds will remain strong
and gusty through this afternoon.

Tropical storm Helene has moved west of the terminals and is
beginning to move away from the area. Rain is quickly ending
from with a few showers persisting and expect all rain to end by
14z. The main concern through the period will be winds which
currently remain very strong and gusty. As Helene moves away
from the area winds will begin subsiding however expect strong
and gusty winds through much of the afternoon. This evening the
winds will finally subside to 10 knots with gusts to 15 knots
then around midnight to less than 10 knots. With drier air
moving in and sustained winds fog is not expected tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Tuesday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-
     038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...Tropical Storm Warning for GAZ040-063>065-077.
&&

$$