987
FXUS62 KCAE 241619
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1219 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next
several days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
occur each afternoon and evening, with better rain chances likely
toward the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Max heat indices around 105F today.
-Scattered afternoon storms in eastern area. Marginal risk for
 severe weather with damaging wind gusts primary threat.

Weak and diffuse surface boundary continues to move through the
area with a few showers in the Pee Dee and the southern CSRA.
Expect the boundary to slow this afternoon with some additional
convective activity possible mainly along and south of I-20 this
afternoon. With dry air in the mid and upper levels
thunderstorms which develop could contain strong and gusty
winds. Heat also remains a concern as winds behind the boundary
are turning northwesterly adding downsloping to the mix. This
has pushed temperatures in the central and western Midlands up
several degrees in the past hour with readings in the low to mid
90s already. Although the temperatures are quickly rising the
dewpoints are also falling with dewpoints in the western
Midlands falling into the mid and upper 60s. This combination
will continue to result in heat index values mainly between 100
and 105 however a few locations in the eastern Midlands may be
slightly higher for a brief time. Convection will diminish with
sunset and with drier air over the area expect gradually
clearing skies with mostly clear conditions by daybreak. High
temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 90s with low
tonight falling into the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Hot conditions continue. Max heat indices 100-105, slightly
 drier conditions in the north Midlands.
-Widely scattered to scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly in
 the southeast Midlands.

Upper level ridge building again as long wave trough axis off
the coast. Deep moisture will shift east of the area. A weak
frontal boundary will be across near the southeast Midlands in
the afternoon. Drier air is expected to advect into the SC
Piedmont and north Midlands where precipitable water is expected
around 1.00 inch. In the east, precipitable water above 1.5-1.8
inch or a little higher. Temperatures will rise into the upper
90s during the afternoon with relatively strong subsidence over
much of the area. Weaker capping in the east at least early in
the afternoon. The air mass remains dry above 3km which should
limit convective coverage overall. The CAM models are
suggesting scattered thunderstorms will focus near the frontal
boundary/trough in the southeast Midlands and coastal Plain. Low
level convergence will be the main forcing for convection,
possibly enhanced by the sea breeze. Showers will be more
limited into the central Midlands. Overall, expect the heat
index range from 100-105 across the region. Overnight lows
continue to range in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

-Hot conditions continue. Max heat indices up to 107.
-Widely scattered to scattered afternoon thunderstorms each day.

An upper level trough will move from the Mississippi Valley into
the Carolinas and Georgia by Thursday. The diffuse
boundary/front remains near the region Wednesday so continued
threat of scattered afternoon thunderstorms mainly in the
southeast Midlands/CSRA. Lower pops west. There may be stronger
dynamics for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as the GFS/ECMWF
show short wave trough moving through the area. Weak
front/boundary near the area. Overall shear not that strong.
But soundings show weaker capping, moderate instability and more
pronounced inverted V, suggesting wind threat. NBM pops
suggesting scattered thunderstorms. With higher chance rain,
temps a tad cooler.

The ensembles continue to show the strong upper ridge building
into the area over the weekend and remaining through early next
week. Relatively high confidence for continued hot temperatures,
above normal, upper 90s to near 100 degrees. Lower confidence on
convective coverage. The NBM suggests scattered coverage at most
and mainly diurnally driven.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Weak frontal boundary continue to move through the region with a
few showers north and south of the terminals. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms at any terminal remain too low to mention
however the highest potential remains at OGB. As the boundary
moves east of the area winds will veer to westerly with some
gusts to 15 mph through this evening. With sunset convection
will end and with drier air moving into the area do not expect
fog development Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$