668
FXUS62 KCAE 232348
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
748 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures are expected to continue for the next
several days. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should
occur each afternoon and evening, with better rain chances likely
toward the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGE:

- Warm and muggy conditions overnight.

Abnormally warm conditions continued today with many locations
reaching the upper 90s this afternoon, including 99 at Columbia.
Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity continues this
evening, with the activity being confined to the eastern
Midlands at this time. Expect this activity to slide eastward
and wane as daytime heating diminishes over the next couple of
hours, followed by warm and muggy conditions overnight. Lows are
forecast to be in the mid 70s while the dew points are expected
to be around 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper trough over the Great Lakes will deepen and move east
into New England on Monday. A weak pre-frontal trough may bring
a few showers to the area ahead of the main boundary in
association with an axis of higher moisture. This moisture will
be mostly above the surface, as dewpoints won`t take too much of
a hit just yet. The boundary may stall somewhere across the
central part of the state, where additional convection may
initiate Monday afternoon mainly to the east in response to
strong daytime heating. As the upper trough finally pushes
through, downsloping is progged to cool dewpoints off into the
60s, or perhaps upper 50s toward the upstate Monday evening into
Tuesday. Temperatures will remain hot with high temps in the
mid to upper 90s. With afternoon dewpoints in the 60s, max heat
indices are forecast around 105 degrees. For areas fortunate
enough to get a shower or thunderstorm, temperatures could be
slightly cooler. SPC maintains a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms mainly east of the I-95 corridor, mainly for gusty
winds with dry air aloft. Any convection should diminish in the
evening with overnight low temps in the low 70s.

Best moisture remains relegated to the eastern CWA on Tuesday with
that lingering boundary still not ready to move out. With lower
dewpoints, head indices are expected to remain below or perhaps
right at 100 despite highs in the mid to upper 90s. Additional
showers and thunderstorms may occur mainly southeast of I-20 where
the best moisture will be. Another night of mild lows with
temperatures in the low 70s as diurnally driven convection
dissipates.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Another upper trough moves through on Wednesday with high pressure
aloft building back over the region late in the week. The associated
front is expected to weaken a bit as it crosses the Appalachians,
but there should still be an increased risk for showers and
thunderstorms, at least compared to earlier in the week. Best rain
chances appear to be Thursday and Thursday night, but it should be
mentioned that the timing of the front remains in question, so there
is low confidence regarding any severe weather threat. Outside of
this feature, scattered diurnally driven convection is expected each
afternoon with the heat continuing to be a nuisance; highs in the
upper 90s each afternoon. Lows will also be mild in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Scattered to broken vfr clouds around 7kft associated with a few
showers will become more scattered by 02z as showers dissipate.
For Monday, a weak frontal boundary will by moving into the area
from the northwest early in the day. This feature appears to
come through dry. May be some scattered to occasionally broken
vfr clouds along the front, but to restrictions expected. Winds
will be southerly to variable overnight, then turn more
southwesterly towards day break ahead of the front before
turning westerly after the front passes. Winds could become a
little gusty up to 15 knots Monday afternoon behind the front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon
scattered showers and thunderstorms and associated
restrictions Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$