379
FXUS62 KCAE 252243
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
643 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary is expected to stall near the forecast area
resulting in chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms through tomorrow. Another, more organized system
is expected to cross the eastern US Monday and Tuesday with
additional chances for thunderstorms. Drier weather is expected
to return Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorm coverage has diminished across the area late this
afternoon and into the evening. However, shortwave energy
moving through the region and remnant outflow boundaries have
sparked a few new thunderstorms across the forecast area. Much
like the activity earlier today, these cells appear of the pulse
variety. Not anticipating anything severe, but there remains
about 2000 J/kg of CAPE over the eastern portions of the
forecast area. This may allow a stronger storm to produce some
hail and/or stronger winds. The thunderstorm coverage and
intensity should reduce after we lose daytime heating in the
next couple of hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A flat H5 ridge axis is forecast to move across the region on
Sunday. Subsidence underneath the ridge axis should be an
inhibiting factor for convection initiation, especially for the
central and southern Midlands as well as the CSRA. The Northern
Midlands could be close enough to disturbances moving into the
Mid Atlantic States for a greater chance of convection. The
atmosphere remains moist and unstable area wide with afternoon
SBCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/KG and PW values around 1.5
inches.

The Eastern U.S. undergoes a major pattern changes Memorial Day
through Tuesday with an unseasonably strong upper low moving into
the Great Lakes region. The Midlands and CSRA will begin to
experience H5 height falls on Memorial Day and continue into
Tuesday. An unstable and moist airmass will be over the region on
Memorial Day with afternoon SBCAPE values around 2000 J/KG and PW
values up to 1.75 inches. A cold front approaches the region in the
late afternoon or evening time frame. The forcing is not lined up
time wise with the best instability. SPC has our region in a
Marginal Risk of severe weather on Memorial Day with a Slight Risk
over much of North Carolina. The Slight Risk could be extended
southward during the next update. Damaging wind gusts are the
primary concern.

A cold front moves across the region Monday Night before stalling
offshore on Tuesday. PW values decrease to below one inch during the
day with dew points dropping into the 50s. If this forecast solution
verifies, cooler and much drier conditions push into the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensembles depict a high probability of much below normal H5 heights
across the Eastern U.S. next week. This should allow Canadian
surface high pressure to move into the region Tuesday Night through
the end of the week. Temperatures and dew points should be below
normal with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected outside of showers-storms.
Thunderstorms expected at AGS and DNL this afternoon.

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving across central GA and
will likely impact the Augusta area terminals between 18z and
22z with gusty winds and associated vsby-cig restrictions. Some
isolated showers and storms are expected across GA-SC this
afternoon behind and away from this line of storms, but
confidence is too low for TAF mention elsewhere. Convection
should settle down later this evening and is not expected
overnight into Sunday. Fog-stratus is possible overnight and
especially in areas with rainfall, so typical areas like AGS and
OGB will likely have some vsby-cig restrictions into Sunday
morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible at times
through early next week in afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$