155
FXUS62 KCAE 170646
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure area will continue to weaken today as it slowly
moves across the region. A few lingering showers will be
possible through the day but amounts will be light. Showers and
seasonable temperatures expected through midweek. Drier weather
expected by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Showers linger over the region today

Early this morning, light rain and drizzle will slowly move
through the Midlands. Amounts will be light but the precip could
reduce visibilities for the morning commute.

Surface low pressure will continue to weaken as it slowly
drifts westward through the day. Lingering moisture and the
upper level low will support scattered shower development later
this morning and afternoon. The highest rain chances will be in
the northern and western Midlands closer to the low. Stratus
will remain over the area this morning but there will be some
clearing through the day, especially in the CSRA and southern
Midlands where WV imagery shows dry air wrapping around the
backside of the system. The cloud cover and light showers will
keep temperatures down today with highs in the mid to upper 70s
in the northern half of the CWA and in the low to mid 80s south
where there will be more clearing. Overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Lingering showers focused in the north Midlands and Piedmont

The remnants of the upper low that moved through the forecast
area will still be slowly rotating and moving back to the north
of the cwa on Wednesday. Winds aloft on the backside of this low
will be turning more westerly, bringing a downslope component,
more sunshine, and warmer temperatures (low to mid 80s) by the
afternoon. There may still be enough weak instability by the
afternoon also to bring a few isolated showers/storms to the
cwa, with the highest pops generally across the northern
counties. Drying occurs then Wednesday night as any shower
activity dissipates. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Message(s):

-Trending drier for the weekend.

Upper troughing will continue into the weekend, while at the
surface, high pressure will build back southward east of the
Appalachians once again. This will generally bring a return of
drier conditions through next weekend. With plenty of sunshine,
highs each afternoon should rise into the low to middle 80s.
Overnight lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR conditions will continue through the morning with a period
of IFR ceilings expected at CAE, CUB and possibly OGB.

As a surface low continues to slowly move through region early
this morning light rain will impact CAE and CUB reducing
visibilities. Vis expected to improve later in the morning as
the deepest moisture moves out of the area. Expect MVFR cigs at
all terminals through much of the day as low clouds wrap around
the low. There may be a period of IFR ceilings at all TAF sites
but confidence is highest at CAE and CUB. Ceilings should show
improvement after 15Z-18Z. VFR conditions should be first to
return at AGS and DNL where drier air is wrapping around the
system. VFR conditions expected to return to all sites by 00Z
Wednesday. Winds will turn from out of the NW to W this morning
becoming light and variable by late afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A lack of forcing will limit rain
chances over the region this week. Lingering low-level moisture
may support early morning restrictions through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$