889
FXUS61 KCAR 252034
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
434 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach tonight, cross the region Thursday,
then exit across the Maritimes Friday. High pressure will build
across the region through the weekend into early next week.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes tonight, while low
pressure lifting north across Quebec province draws a
warm/occluded front toward western New England. Expect
isolated/scattered showers early tonight, with a steadier rain
then starting to develop overnight in advance of the
approaching system. The occluded front approaches western
portions of the forecast area later Thursday. Aloft, the
supporting closed upper low will also approach. Precipitable
water values increase to around 1.50 inches Thursday. A steady
rain will develop across the entire forecast area Thursday. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50
across the forecast area. High temperatures Thursday will range
from the mid to upper 50s north, to the upper 50s to lower 60s
Downeast.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low pressure system will continue to track southeast through
the forecast area Thursday night into early Friday morning.
Stratiform rain will begin to taper off, becoming showery into
the day on Friday as forcing over the area weakens and drier air
begins to fill in behind the system. Average temperatures will
return to the area with highs in the lower 60s across the north
and mid to upper 60s Downeast.

Into the day on Saturday, recent guidance is hinting at the
chance for an inverted trough to swing back into the forecast
area from the departing area of low pressure. Combined with
lingering mid level moisture and diurnal heating, scattered rain
showers are possible Saturday afternoon, especially in the north
and down into northern Washington County: closer to the low
center and also combined with upslope flow in northerly winds.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure should begin to build in through the
second half of the weekend and into early next week. Average
temperatures are likely through this time period along with
another period of dry weather. As skies begin to clear into
early next week, temperatures could drop towards the 30s across
the north thanks to surface decoupling Monday night. A front may
begin to approach the area from the west on Wednesday, but
recent guidance trends suggest the front will approach more
slowly, and given the strength of the ridge that may be in place
through the first part of the week, a blocking pattern is the
mostly likely outcome such that the front does not arrive until
much later in the week.
&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR early tonight with isolated to scattered
showers. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, overnight with a steadier
rain developing. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, Thursday with rain
and patchy fog. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots tonight.
Southeast/south winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots
Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thurs night: IFR likely across all terminals, potentially
improving towards MVFR as rain decreases. SE wind 5 to 10 kts.

Fri: MVFR north, conditions improving to VFR at Downeast
terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Fri night: Conditions improving to VFR across all terminals. N
wind around 5 kts.

Sat: Mostly VFR. Brief -SHRA possible across northern terminals.
N wind. Winds light and variable.

Saturday night...VFR conditions across all terminals, though
brief IFR possible at any terminals which saw rain on Sat. Winds
light and variable.

Sun - Mon: VFR across all terminals. Winds NW to N.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will remain below small craft advisory
levels tonight through Thursday. A slight chance of rain later
tonight. Rain developing with patchy fog Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will likely remain below SCA criteria
through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds may
briefly gust to around 20 kts Thursday night. Rain and patchy
fog could limit visibility Thursday night into early Friday
morning.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Norcross
Short Term...AStrauser
Long Term...AStrauser
Aviation...Norcross/AStrauser
Marine...Norcross/AStrauser