Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
031 FXUS61 KCAR 201958 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 358 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will exit the area this evening and will be followed by high pressure on Friday. Low pressure will approach on Saturday and track north of our area Sunday. A cold front will cross the area Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... The cold front is making good progress southward with less humid air already in northern Aroostook County and spreading south. The frontal boundary will focus convection through the evening. Between storms reaching above 40k ft, strong updrafts, and an inverted V, damaging winds are a big concern moving into southern Penobscot County and Hancock County where a favorable SBCAPE environment exists. Values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are currently measured in these areas. In coordination with SPC and GYX, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued for northern Somerset County, Piscataquis County, Penobscot County and Hancock County. Also expect some storms to move over the coastal waters off Hancock County. Northern portions of Penobscot and Piscataquis have little threat due to the frontal position. In fact, have removed thunderstorms from the forecast for the northern half of the CWA. Besides damaging winds late this afternoon towards Bangor and Ellsworth, the other concern is the potential for heavy convective rain this evening towards southern Penobscot County and Hancock County as the front slowly traverses that area and multiple storms train across the area. Some guidance suggests that several inches of rainfall could fall within a few hours this evening. WPC has included this area in the latest ERO update. The front exits off the coast later tonight. Still looking for cooler temperatures and lower dew points to advect southward tonight into Friday, but did bump up Friday highs slightly with some low 80s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday Night and Saturday... Zonal WNW flow over the area with a strengthening WNW/ESE oriented front positioned just south of our forecast area. Cloudy/mostly cloudy skies Fri night/Sat Downeast, but partly cloudy skies north. Also a chance of rain over southern portions of the area with likely dry conditions in the north. Area will be under a stable airmass on the north (cool) side of the front, and don`t expect any thunderstorms. Some fog near the coast. Saturday Night... The front to our south begins to creep north and close to Downeast as a warm front, and expect increasing rain chances from south to north as this occurs. Still expect the more significant rain toward Sunday though. Sunday... As an upper trough approaches from the west, the warm front extending east from an approaching surface low around Ottawa continues to pivot north. Still some uncertainty on the frontal positioning, but it appears the heavier rainfall will be over Northern Maine just north of the warm front where good overrunning will be occurring. Good shot that areas with the best overrunning just north of the front could exceed an inch of rain during the day Sunday and into Sunday evening. Chance of storms late in the day, best chance Downeast, in the warm sector south of the warm front advancing north. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Surface low pressure looks to track east across either Northern Maine or just north of us Sun night/Mon, with a cold front moving through around late Monday. Still a good amount of uncertainty on how exactly things evolve, but looks like wet, unsettled conditions Sun night/Mon with potential for thunderstorms as well. Looking for a bit of a break around Tuesday, but the next cold front with shower/thunderstorm potential looks on track for Wed/Thu. Still about 24 hours of timing uncertainty for this Wed/Thu system. Temperatures Sun night to Thu generally near or a bit warmer than average. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR with light NW winds. Thunderstorms can be expected at BHB and BGR this evening with very gusty NW winds and temporary LIFR vis. SHORT TERM: Friday night and Saturday... VFR north. MVFR possibly developing Downeast late Friday night into Saturday with potential for light rain. Possible IFR or worse in low clouds and fog along coast, including BHB late Fri night into Sat. Light winds becoming S 5-10 kts Sat. Saturday Night...IFR likely Downeast, including BHB/BGR, esp after midnight. Generally VFR from HUL north. S wind 5 kts. Sunday through Monday...Mainly MVR, with periods of IFR, with rain and low clouds. Potential of storms Downeast Sunday and areawide Monday. S winds around 10 kts. Monday Night and Tuesday...Winds becoming NW around 10 kts, with conditions gradually improving to mostly VFR for Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Thunderstorms are the primary threat through later tonight along a slow-moving cold front. Winds will shift to northwest later this evening, and eventually to northeast by Friday morning. SHORT TERM: Small craft level seas appear likely Sun night to Tue morning, with the potential for small craft level winds as well. && .CLIMATE... June 20th High Temperature Records (F): (Observed so far) Caribou (90) 93 in 2020 Bangor (97) 95 in 2020 Millinocket (94) 96 in 2020 Houlton (91) 94 in 2020 && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ011-030>032. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015>017-029. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...MCW Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...MCW/Foisy Marine...MCW/Foisy Climate...MCW/Foisy