595
FXUS61 KCAR 031245
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
845 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach this morning and cross the area this
afternoon. An upper low will move across the region on Friday
followed by high pressure on Saturday. A cold front will push
into the area Sunday and stall over the area Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
845 AM Update: Some thunderstorms have already developed near
our CWA, passing just north of the Saint John Valley. The 12z
KCAR sounding measured around 1000 J/kg MUCAPE this morning,
with 37 kts bulk shear and 1.16 inch PWATs. Lapse rates are also
already increasing early this morning, reaching over 6 C/km
already for 700-500 mb. With these ingredients in place, have
increased the forecast for this afternoon to include damaging
winds and a chance for small hail.

Previous Discussion:
...The primary concern in the near term is the threat of severe
thunderstorms today....

Upper level trough to our west will move east and cross the region
this afternoon. The atmosphere is expected to destabilize in
advance of the approaching upper trough and associated surface
cold front. This will result in scattered thunderstorms
developing, mainly after noon time. The primary threat with any
storms today appears to be the potential for strong to damaging
wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of
northern and downeast Maine in a Slight Risk for Severe
Thunderstorms today. Today has the potential to be the first
widespread severe weather event of the season, so please monitor
the latest forecasts on the potential severe weather threat
later today.

The severe weather threat should quickly wind down early this
evening as the cold front moves east. A few showers may linger into
early tonight, otherwise expect partial clearing late tonight.
Patchy late night fog will be possible. Lows tonight will
generally range from around 50 across the north and mid to
upper 50s for the Bangor region and Downeast areas.

A 500 MB low center will cross the region during Friday. Instabilty
associated with the cold pool aloft and diurnal heating will
result in the chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across northern and central areas. Freezing levels will
be lowering, so will have to watch for the potential of some
small hail with any isolated thunderstorms. Friday will feature
somewhat cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will range from
around 70 across the north and the mid to upper 70s for the
Bangor region and Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The upper low which crosses the area Friday will be sliding
southeast of the region Friday night as high pressure builds to our
southwest. This will bring a mostly clear and seasonably cool night
Friday night. High pressure to our south on Saturday will bring a
mostly sunny and warm day as highs reach just above 80 inland.
A cold front will approach from the northwest Saturday night as
surface high pressure to our south slides east into the open
Atlantic. The gradient between the departing high and the
approaching cold front will bring an increasing southwesterly
breeze.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A cold front will press into the area Sunday with showers and
scattered thunderstorms, mainly over the north. The front will
weaken and stall over the area Sunday night as it tries to press
south into high pressure to our southeast, as this high merges
with the subtropical high. A chance of showers will continue
Sunday night with the front stalled across the area. Some of the
forecast models are showing a weather disturbance tracking
along the front on Monday. This may continue the chance of
showers across the area with thunderstorms possible during the
midday and afternoon. The front will weaken and dissipate on
Tuesday although some isolated showers will continue to be
possible, mostly over southern areas. By Wednesday, very weak
high pressure will build over the region. This high will likely
not be strong enough to clear all the moisture over the region
so some clouds and isolated spotty showers may still be possible
with variable cloudiness and a chance of isolated showers
continuing into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals. Conditions may briefly lower to
MVFR/IFR in TSRA this afternoon. S to SW wind around 10 kt
today. Wind will be gusty in any afternoon thunderstorms today.

VFR conditions are expected tonight, except patchy fog is
possible late tonight with MVFR or lower possible all terminals.
W to NW less that 10 kt tonight.

VFR on Friday, except MVFR is possible at times in any
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. NW wind
10 to 15 kt with G20 KT.

SHORT TERM:
Friday night...VFR. Light NW wind.

Saturday...VFR. Light W to SW wind.

Saturday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the north late.
SW wind. Chance for some SW wind shear, especially over the north.

Sunday...MVFR north, possibly lowering to IFR at times. VFR south.
SW wind, becoming light and variable over the north.

Sunday night...MVFR north. VFR possibly becoming MVFR south. light
and variable wind.

Monday...MVFR. Light and variable wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will below below SCA levels through
tonight. patchy fog may reduce visibility to 1 to 3 NM tonight.

SHORT TERM:
SW winds may approach 25 kt in a few gusts late Sunday into
Sunday night. Otherwise, wind and seas should remain below SCA
through early next week. Humid air over the colder water will
likely result in some mist and fog Sunday into early next week.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...AStrauser/TWD
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...AStrauser/TWD/Bloomer
Marine...AStrauser/TWD/Bloomer