Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
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184 FXUS61 KCAR 240818 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 418 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level low pressure will cross the area today into this evening as a weak surface low tracks along the coast. High pressure will return on Tuesday then slide south of the region Wednesday. A cold front will push into the area and stall Wednesday night as low pressure tracks along the front. High pressure will approach on Thursday and crest over the area Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... One area of low pressure that brought our soaking rain on Sunday has moved east into the Maritimes. Trailing upper level low pressure to our west will track east across Western New England today supporting a weak secondary surface low near the coast. Most of the forecast guidance is showing a band of showers with this low mainly across south central areas. The HRRR, however, is showing another band across the north but seems to be an outlier. Will carry categorical to likely showers south and scattered showers north today. Lingering moisture will result in a mostly cloudy day although the sky may brighten at times through the midday hours. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly south, this afternoon. Upper level low pressure and the trailing surface low will exit into the Maritimes late tonight. Any remaining showers will taper off from west to east and the sky will partially clear late at night as high pressure begins to build in from the west. Winds will be light and the moist ground may result in some patchy fog forming overnight. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A ridge of high pressure will begin to build into the area on Tuesday, clearing out skies through the day. Rain showers may linger briefly over Washington county early on Tuesday before tapering off through the day. Warm temperatures will return with highs in the low to mid 80s across the forecast area under light off-shore winds and plenty of incoming solar radiation under clearing skies. Cloud cover will begin to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next low pressure system approaches from the west. A 110 kt jet steak will swing towards the area from the Hudson Bay, with the forecast area being in an area of subsidence under the right exit region of the jet streak. This will limit the threat for showers and storms early in the day on Wednesday even though the ridge axis will begin working its way into the Canadian Maritimes at this time. As the system moves closer to the area, the upper level trough will begin to deepen, pivoting the strengthening jet streak such that the CWA enters the right entrance region by Wednesday evening. The resulting increase in instability leads to the slight chance for thunderstorm development, especially across the North Woods which will be closer to the approaching front at this time. Other showers may begin to develop late Wednesday afternoon as well, with the greatest chance for Wednesday rain being across the north. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The cold front will continue crossing into the forecast area Wednesday night, but will begin to slow in forward progress through the night. As the front begins to stall, a center of low pressure will ride up along the boundary, persisting the rain threat over the region through the night. With deep warm cloud layer forecast over 10 kft, PWATs approaching 1.8 inches and well above average for this area this time of the year, and training rain along the stalling boundary, there is an increased chance (60%) of moderate to heavy rainfall which could result in localized ponding on roads and flooding in poor drainage areas. Despite all the favorable heavy rain parameters, CAPE is forecast to be minimal, and though isolated thunderstorms remain possible in this synoptic setup, the nocturnal presentation helps in preventing a more widespread thunder threat. The low should move out into the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, with lingering showers and storms dissipating into Thursday evening. High pressure will build into the area on Friday, then another area of low pressure will approach the area on Saturday. The ridge of high pressure from Saturday will slide off into the Atlantic, though guidance suggests the high could strengthen into the weekend, which could slow the currently progressive pattern. Due to this, the next cold front may not arrive until Saturday night, or possibly into Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR conditions in low clouds this morning should improve to MVFR across the area this afternoon. MVFR to VFR conditions are likely tonight with the except of some patchy fog late. Winds today will be light northerly over northern sites and light southerly near the coast. Winds tonight will be very light northerly across the area. SHORT TERM: Tues - Tues night: VFR across all terminals. Winds N to NW around 5 kts shifting SW into Tues night. Wed: Generally VFR across all terminals, with MVFR cigs moving in to Aroostook terminals from the NW through the day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms at northern terminals by Wed evening. Winds SW 5 to 15 kts. Wed night: IFR in showers and thunderstorms. Winds SW at 5 to 10 kts with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms. Vis could become LIFR in any heavy rain. Thurs: Improving to VFR with lingering showers and thunderstorms possible, dissipating late. Winds NW at 5 to 10 kts. Thurs night - Fri: VFR across all terminals. Light NW winds increasing to 5 to 10 kts on Fri. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A SCA will remain up today for the offshore waters for seas up to 5 ft. Winds should remain just below SCA. Fog and mist will likely limit visibilities today and tonight. SHORT TERM: Borderline SCA conditions may linger through the middle of the week, with seas approaching 5 ft through this time and winds gusting to 20 kts, becoming seas to 6 ft and gusts to 25 kts with the low pressure system late Wednesday into Thursday. Conditions will improve and fall below SCA levels by Friday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...Bloomer Short Term...AStrauser Long Term...AStrauser Aviation...Bloomer/AStrauser Marine...Bloomer/AStrauser