172
FXUS61 KCAR 181738
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
138 PM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A disturbance will cross the region today through tonight, then
exit across the Maritimes Sunday. High pressure will move south
across the region Sunday into early next week, then build south
of the area through the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
140 pm update...
Dry air continues to hold tight over eastern zones with main
rain area still back to our west. Latest HRRR has a good handle
on current conditions and have followed output for remainder of
the afternoon. Have adjusted pops to reflect latest fcst of
showers with likely pops over central zones later this afternoon
into the evening.

Previous Discussion...
At the surface, high pressure centered near Labrador will ridge
across the region today while low pressure tracks south of the
Gulf of Maine. Aloft, an upper level disturbance will begin to
move east across the region. The disturbance will cross the
region tonight, while surface ridging persists.
Isolated/scattered, mostly afternoon, showers will accompany the
disturbance across northern areas today through early tonight.
Some uncertainty still exists regarding the interaction between
the disturbance and the northern edge of the moisture field from
the low tracking south of the Gulf of Maine. Current
indications are that the steadiest rains should remain offshore
across the Gulf of Maine. However, still expect
scattered/numerous showers mostly this afternoon through early
tonight across Downeast areas. Showers then decrease regionwide
later tonight. High temperatures today will range from the upper
60s to around 70 north, to the lower to mid 60s interior
Downeast with around 60 along the Downeast coast. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to around 50
across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Sunday starts out mainly cloudy, with perhaps a few early morning
lingering showers Downeast, associated with an ocean low to our
south and exiting upper level trof. The trof exits to the east
later Sunday morning with upper ridging building by Sunday
afternoon. At the surface, high pressure builds westward across
the area from Maritimes. We should remain fairly cloudy into the
afternoon, as soundings are suggesting some moisture below 5
Kft below a shallow inversion. With this in mind, blended
NBM/Consall for afternoon highs on Sunday, which shaved a few
degrees off the raw NBM numbers. Thinking is clouds start to
break up later Sunday afternoon as the upper ridge builds east.
Sunday night features partly cloudy skies with building upper
ridge and surface high across the region. On Monday, weak short
wave crossing Quebec province flattens out the upper ridging.
Have maintained slight chance pops, mainly far northern
Aroostook county and the St.John Valley. Otherwise, Monday will
be a warmer day with highs approaching 80 degrees inland away
from the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper ridge will continue to extend northeastward across the region
through mid week with a warming trend. Northern stream short wave
looks to cross the region later Tuesday with the chance for
afternoon showers mainly across the north. Otherwise partly to
mostly sunny skies expected with afternoon highs in the lower 80s
for most areas away from the coast. Expect partly cloudy skies
Tuesday night. Wednesday looks like an even warmer day with
925MB temperatures progged to climb to 20C-23C across the
region, thus expect the potential for highs in the mid to upper
80s for some inland locales. Appears another short wave will
cross the region Wednesday afternoon with the chance for
showers. With the warming temperatures and increasing low level
moisture have included slight chance thunder as well. Cold front
approaches Thursday with chance for more showers and possible
thunderstorms. Cooler weather follows the front for the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR over northern terminals today and this evening
before slowly diminishing to VFR after midnight and IFR toward
daybreak.

Downeast terminals drop to MVFR later this evening and LIFR
around 08z in light showers. Conditions slowly improve to MVFR
by late morning.

SHORT TERM:

Sun...MVFR Downeast early with VFR north. E around 5kts.

Sun night-Tue...Mainly VFR. Chance showers Tuesday North.

Tue night-Wed...VFR/MVFR. Chance showers.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today
through tonight. Isolated/scattered showers this morning, then
scattered to numerous showers this afternoon through tonight.
Patchy fog early this morning, then again this afternoon into
tonight.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday
through Monday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/Norcross
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...Buster/Norcross/TWD
Marine...Buster/Norcross/TWD