109
FXUS61 KCAR 292206
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
606 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in through Tuesday. Low pressure tracks
south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday. High pressure returns on
Thursday while another low pressure passes to the south of the
area, then high pressure remains over the area Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
606 PM Update: The vast majority of bkn-ovc SC cld cvr has now
moved E of the FA ovr NB, so skies should be clr-mclr with the
aforementioned thin high cld cvr ovr Wrn ptns of the FA.
Otherwise, only minor chgs to fcst hrly cld cvr, winds, and
temps/dwpts into the Ovrngt hrs.

Prev Disc: Incoming cirrostratus can be seen on visible
satellite imagery beginning to push into southern and western
Maine. High pressure will continue to dominate the region
through the night tonight with clearing skies, though far NE
Aroostook county will be last to fully clear out overnight
tonight. Low temperatures tonight will fall to around freezing
across the north, and into the upper 30s Downeast where
downsloping will warm the air into this region.

Cloud cover will begin to increase once more from the southwest
through the day on Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low
pressure system, however gusty winds will have dissipated and
northerly winds will become lighter. High temperatures under the
increasing cloud cover will lift into the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft will be present Tuesday night through
Thursday with temperatures closer to average. Two weak shortwave
troughs moving through the NW flow could bring a little rain,
the first Tuesday night and the second Thursday. The moisture
with Tuesday night`s system looks more abundant to the southwest
of us. The question is how far northeast the light rain makes
it, and there is still a lot of disagreement on this. There has
been a bit of a northeast trend in the models, and adjusted PoPs
up slightly, going with chance PoPs for the SW 2/3 of the area.
Still, lots of uncertainty. Even worst case scenario with the
rain, however, is for about a quarter inch of rain mainly SW of
Millinocket. And it`s still possible all the rain will stay west
of Bangor. Temperatures will be warm enough for only rain if
any occurs. Any rain exits by dawn Wednesday, leaving way for
dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night with weak high
pressure aloft and at the surface. Then on Thursday, the next
potential shortwave trough dives in from the northwest. However,
there is a lot of uncertainty with the trajectory of this
system, and went with only a chance of showers for Thursday day,
mainly in west portions of the area. Again, even at worst case
this looks like a light rain event with totals under a half inch
if there is any rain. Models have been trending a bit wetter
with Thursday`s system...something to watch. Many models also
keep the brunt of the rain just SW of the area, just like
Tuesday night`s system. Bottom line, a lot of uncertainty, but
nothing terribly dramatic even in a worst case scenario for
rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure looks to build back in Thursday night and Friday
with dry weather. The amount of sun under the high pressure
looks questionable though. Upper level ridging appears to
amplify just west of us Saturday to Monday with a bit of a
warming trend, but nothing out of the ordinary for this time of
year. Rain chances generally increase as we head through the
weekend and into Monday. Nothing to hang your hat on though, and
went with just a chance of rain Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mostly VFR conditions are expected through tonight,
and into the day on Tuesday. Winds N to NW at 10 to 15 kts
with gusts 25 to 30 kts through the evening hours. Tonight,
there may be a brief period of northerly LLWS, mainly across
Downeast terminals, of around 30 to 35 kts between 00z and 09z.
LLWS will be brief, and dissipate into the early morning hours
on Tuesday. N to NW winds overnight will fall to 5 to 10 kts
while gusts 15 to 20 kts may remain. On Tuesday, VFR conditions
continue with N to NW winds 5 to 10 kts. Brief gusts to 20 kts
possible at Aroostook terminals early Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday Night... Possibility of MVFR/IFR mainly BHB/BGR, but
confidence is low due to uncertainty on whether light rain will
move into the area or not. Light winds.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, with light winds.

Thursday...Possibility of MVFR/IFR, but low confidence depending
on the track of a weather system and presence of rain. Light
winds.

Thursday Night through Saturday...Mainly VFR with NE wind 5-10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Wind gusts are expected to remain just below advisory
levels tonight into Tuesday morning, with a few gusts to 25 kts
possible on the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Winds will
continue to decrease through the day on Tuesday. Seas will
remain 1 to 2 ft tonight through Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Conditions likely remaining below small craft levels
with minimal fog through the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Foisy
Long Term...Foisy
Aviation...VJN/Foisy
Marine...VJN/Foisy