123
FXUS61 KCAR 181651
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1251 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area today and Thursday. A
cold front will cross the region Thursday afternoon. High
pressure will build in again from Canada Friday into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1240 PM Update:
The previous forecast remains on track with no significant
changes needed. Satellite imagery shows some cumulus developing
across northern Maine. Otherwise, banded and generally thin
cirrus is overspreading central and southern portions of the
forecast area. Temperatures have warmed into the 80s at most
locations and are approaching daily records at Caribou and
Houlton, where the record has already been tied based on the 5
minute temperature data. Minor changes were made to tonight and
Thursday based on the latest data.

Previous discussion:
Surface high pressure will gradually shift east today. However,
the area will still be under the influence of a ridge axis with
mostly sunny skies over the entire area. Temperatures this
afternoon will be similar to yesterdays highs, climbing into the
middle 80s.

Clouds will be on the increase tonight ahead of an upper level
low drifting thru the Mid-Atlantic. Some areas may see fog
develop late tonight, especially near the coast. Given little
change in airmass have kept mins similar to this morning with
lows in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will remain over the area Thursday bringing another
very warm and moderately humid day. Low pressure off Southern New
England will be nearby to the south. This low is expected to remain
to our south but may come close to the coast. Clouds north of this
low will bring a mostly cloudy day along the coast. Meanwhile,
further north, a cold front will push into Northern Maine early
Thursday afternoon then continue south from there. The front is
being pushed south by a new high pressure system and ridging across
far Northeastern Canada. There may be a slight chance for a shower
as the front pushes through the area Thursday afternoon. Otherwise,
it is expected to be a mainly dry frontal passage.

The cold front will push offshore and merge with the low off the
coast Thursday night. This may contribute to some intensification of
the offshore low bringing breezy conditions with a northeasterly
wind along the coast Thursday night into Friday. The low is still
expected to remain offshore but may be close and may impact
parts of Eastern New England south of our area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday night will be cooler than recent nights as high pressure
builds down from the north. Northern areas will be mostly clear
while Downeast is partly cloudy, to perhaps mostly cloudy near
the coast with a northeasterly breeze along the coast as the
offshore storm remains near to the south.

High pressure will continue to build down from Eastern Canada
Saturday into Saturday night supported by the subsidence between
strong ridging pushing into Quebec and upper level low pressure over
the Northern Maritimes. This will push the offshore storm away to
the southeast bringing a clear to partly cloudy sky over the region.
The cooler air pushing in from the northeast will bring a cool day
on Saturday with highs from the mid 60s north to the upper 60s
Downeast. This will be followed by a mostly clear and very cool
night Saturday with lows in the 40s across the area.

Canadian high pressure will continue to press down from the north
Sunday into Sunday night. The high will be cresting nearby to the
northeast Sunday night. Lighter winds and calmer air near the
surface will result in a very cool night with lows near 40 in some
of the cooler northern valleys. A few spots may dip into the upper
30s with a chance for patchy frost over northwestern spots.

Dry and cool weather will persist into early next week as high
pressure and upper ridging remain over the region. Another low may
begin to approach mid to late week but is looks like blocking may
also hold that one to the south, at least through mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Predominantly VFR through Thursday. BHB should drop
to IFR visibility late tonight into the early morning hours
(Medium to high/80 percent confidence). Low confidence (20
percent) in fog at BGR and HUL possibly leading to IFR
visibility around the same time. Light and variable winds,
shifting N Thursday.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds south, Light N wind north.

Thursday night...VFR. Light NE wind.

Friday into Friday night...VFR. Light NE wind north and a moderate
northeast wind over the south.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR. Light NE wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels
today and tonight. SW winds gusting to around 15ks this
afternoon with seas ranging from 1 to 3 feet.

SHORT TERM:
Northeast winds may approach SCA at times Friday into early Saturday
as low pressure off the coast intensifies for a period. Otherwise,
wind and seas should be below SCA into the coming weekend. Some fog
and mist may still be over the waters on Thursday due to humid air.
Drier air pushing down from Canada should bring good visibility
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record high temperatures are expected today. Here are the
record highs today.

9/18:
Caribou: 86F, 1942 (forecast high 85F)
Bangor: 87F, 1992 (forecast high 85F)
Millinocket: 87F, 1991 (forecast high 84F)
Houlton: 82F, 2015 (forecast high 84F)

Houlton`s high temperature of 86 yesterday September 17th set a
new record. The old record of 85 was set in 1942 and 2018.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Buster/MStrauser
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
Aviation...MStrauser/Bloomer
Marine...Buster/Bloomer
Climate...