Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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570 FXUS61 KCLE 250140 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 940 PM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure will slide east through the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday, lifting a warm north north across the area Tuesday afternoon. A cold front will then move east through the region on Wednesday, followed by high pressure by the end of the week. Another low pressure system system is expected to move across the region on Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM Update... The forecast for this evening remains on track and no changes were needed with this update. The convection over southern Wisconsin will stay to the west of the CWA and the complex over northern Minnesota will be the activity to monitor overnight as it likely moves southeast. The area will likely be at least clipped by this complex Tuesday morning, but there`s still uncertainty in how much instability is in place and how much the MCS weakens by daybreak. Previous Discussion... Surface high pressure and upper- level troughing will exit east of the region as an upper- level ridge builds across the Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday. Beneath the ridge. very steep mid- level lapse rates will be advected northeastwards across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region tonight into Tuesday, resulting in strong instability, but also strong capping. An upper-level trough across northern ND/MN this evening will provide sufficient forcing for an organized complex of thunderstorms to develop and move southeastward through the Great Lakes overnight into Tuesday morning. Confidence is increasing in at least some elevated convection arriving across northern OH Tuesday morning. Will need to monitor upstream convective trends, particularly later this evening and overnight as any storms that are able to become surface-based would have the potential for damaging wind gusts. There is also a concerning signal for the HRRR late Tuesday morning behind the convection for the potential of a wake low to produce strong wind gusts. This potential is low, but possible, given the expectation of a rapidly-decaying MCS and warming cloud tops. Otherwise, anticipating much of Tuesday afternoon and evening to be relatively quiet as morning convection combined with an elevated- mixed layer should result in strong capping and inhibit initiation. If this outcome holds true, high temperatures should break unto the upper 80s to lower 90s under diminishing cloud cover. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Cold front will be in the process of progressing southeast across the region to begin the short term period. Showers and thunderstorms along this cold front will continue to move through the region with the potential for any strong to severe storms dependent on how the environment evolves with any storms that occur Tuesday and Tuesday night. High pressure will quickly build over the region behind the cold front which will end any remaining showers and storms and clear out cloud cover for Thursday. Near normal high temperatures on Wednesday in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the region. Lows will settle in the upper 50s to lower 60s Wednesday night. Cooler behind the cold front by Thursday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Northerly flow with a clear sky Thursday night will allow for lows to dip in to the low 50s across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Slightly warmer in the mid to upper 50s west of the I-71 corridor. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure remains overhead to end the work week before we undergo another unsettled period this weekend. We`ll be dry to begin Friday with PoPs increasing Friday afternoon and evening from west to east. Warm front lifts northeast bringing showers and the potential for some strong to severe storms to the region through Saturday. Cold front will cross east Saturday night into Sunday morning followed by high pressure which will allow us to end the long term period fairly dry. Temperatures will gradually warm through the first part of the long term with the warmest day of the period occurring on Saturday as the warm front lifts through the region. High temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are possible Saturday before they return closer to normal behind the cold front Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... VFR is expected for the majority of the TAF period, however uncertainty still exists in the forecast for Tuesday morning and afternoon. A complex of thunderstorms will likely develop somewhere over the Upper Midwest this evening before tracking southeast across the Great Lakes region overnight and possibly moving over the area Tuesday morning. Will need to monitor the development of convection over the next several hours, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of the MCS. Opted to maintain VCTS/VCSH in the TAFs for the time being, but will likely make adjustments as confidence increases over the next 12 hours or so. Any storms that move directly over terminals could produce non-VFR conditions and possible brief gusty winds. Rain chances should decrease during the afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight before becoming south/southwest later tonight into Tuesday morning and increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots by late morning or early afternoon. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Non-VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. && .MARINE... High pressure builds to the east tonight as low pressure centered over Ontario lifts a warm front lifts across the lake on Tuesday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less under high pressure will increase out of the south to 15-20 knots as the warm front moves across the lake. There may be a brief window of 20-25 knot southerly flow Tuesday morning and afternoon mainly along and east of the Lake Erie Islands but held off any and Small Craft issuance with this update. Offshore flow will keep the highest wave heights across the open waters. By Wednesday, the low will swing a cold front across the lake which will turn winds of 10-15 knots more westerly to northwesterly by late Wednesday night. High pressure builds overhead behind the cold front to end of the work week and will allow for more variable flow under 10 knots into the end of the work week. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for LEZ142>144. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn/Maines SHORT TERM...Iverson LONG TERM...Iverson AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Iverson