Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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637 FXUS61 KCLE 110531 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 131 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds into the area tonight and persists through midweek. A cold front drops through Thursday night and early Friday, followed by more high pressure this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 935 PM Update... No major changes to the forecast as gradual clearing continues. Will still take into the Tuesday time frame for the eastern zones for this to occur. Chilly overnight with widespread 40s away from the lake. Previous Discussion... Weak trough axis still pushing south-southeast across inland counties late this afternoon. It remains mostly cloudy for all except for Northwest OH, with clearing expected to spread from northwest to southeast through this evening. Lingering sprinkles or light showers from Ashland to Warren points south will exit over the next few hours. Much of the area is in the 50s, quite impressive for the afternoon hours on June 10th. Skies become mostly clear tonight as lows settle into the mid 40s to low 50s. It remains mostly sunny for Tuesday with highs ranging from the mid 60s in Northwest PA to the mid to upper 70s along the I-75 corridor. Some mid-high level clouds drift through Tuesday night with lows ranging from the mid to upper 40s in interior PA to the mid-upper 50s along I-75. There may be a bit of patchy fog in valleys tonight into early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure over the Appalachians to start the day on Wednesday will shift to the East Coast. Return flow with southwest winds will develop with temperatures warming 8-10 degrees on Wednesday to near normal values and then continuing to climb to above normal values on Thursday as 850mb temperatures warm to 16-18C. Low pressure will develop across the Upper Great Lakes ahead of a trough moving through the northwest flow out of Canada. The atmosphere remains fairly dry through the day on Thursday as moisture increases across lower Michigan ahead of the front slowly settling south. While the main area of low pressure moves northeast into Quebec, a chance of showers and thunderstorms does expand Thursday night as secondary wave of low pressure develops along the boundary across Lake Erie. Highest pops are focused near and east of Lake Erie with modest instability along the boundary before settling south through the overnight hours and into Friday morning. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Although instability looks limited by Friday morning, some showers and thunderstorms may still be ongoing, especially across southern and eastern portions of the area. Generally speaking the cold front is not expected to fully clear the area until mid-afternoon on Friday. Temperatures trend cooler behind the front Friday into Saturday before a strong warm up arrives for the end of the long term. A strong ridge builds overhead with 500mb heights of near 591dm bringing hot and summer-like temperatures to the region. Highs are likely to surpass 90 degrees across most of Ohio by Monday if this pattern verifies. We will need to keep an eye out for shortwave energy trying to round the ridge and bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms but good agreement among the long range ensembles currently support well above normal temperatures by the end of the period. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... High pressure builds overhead and will allow for calm and clear conditions across terminals through the period. ERI will see MVFR ceilings linger for the next few hours before clearing to VFR early this morning. Can`t rule out patchy fog dropping visibilities to MVFR overnight tonight, but not enough confidence in spatial extent of fog to place in any TAF. Light and variable winds under 5 knots through the TAF period. Winds turn generally northerly this afternoon before turning generally southerly at the end of this TAF period. Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible with scattered showers Thursday night into early Friday. && .MARINE... Winds and waves are peaking late this afternoon with onshore winds of 10-20 knots resulting in a moderate swim risk from Lorain County eastward. Conditions will improve through the evening as high pressure builds overhead and winds decrease to 10 knots or less by Tuesday morning. The high will shift to the southeast through Wednesday with southwest winds developing but may still see lake breezes Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds of 10-15 knots return Thursday ahead of a cold front that will settle south across Lake Erie Thursday night into Friday. Winds behind the front look to be 15 knots or less as the shift around to the northeast and east heading into Saturday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sullivan NEAR TERM...26/Sullivan SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...KEC