Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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137 FXUS61 KCLE 182329 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 729 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper ridge builds back in over the southern Great Lakes through the weekend. Low pressure system moves in early next week with the next chances for rain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Remnant moisture from the tropical system now over the piedmont area and central Appalachians will likely not be able to make into into our CWA in the form of wetting rains. Some sprinkles out in NW PA today, but coverage is minimal and not expected to last much more than a few hours with the now extratropical system expected to move northeastward towards Long Island. Upper level ridge builds back into the southern Great Lakes from the southwest, and the forecast returns to being dry through Thursday night. Some patchy mist/fog tonight, but the very dry surface/ground conditions will inhibit formation to some extent. Most likely areas to see fog are the valleys in the hillier terrain, river valleys, and then also in northwest Ohio. Similar temperatures Thursday in this warm and dry pattern with lesser mist/fog chances Thursday night. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For the majority of the day, Friday will still be influenced by the high pressure situated over New England. Late Friday night into early Saturday guidance shows a shortwave traversing across the Great Lakes region so, a slight chance of PoPs have been introduced for the most northern and western counties of the CWA to account for this. Can expect a rumble of thunder or two with these storms as well. Precipitation amounts will be minimal as it`s a fairly narrow band of moisture so most will not see much in the way of measurable precipitation and won`t make much of a dent in the current drought conditions. Temperatures Saturday will be a warm one with being in the mid to high 80s and dewpoints creeping up into the low 60s. Overnight lows will be status quo, dipping down into the low 60s and high 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The bigger story will be a larger overall change to the pattern with the upper level ridge breaking down starting Sunday night into Monday. A low pressure system will develop in the mid-Mississippi Valley and move northeast towards the Great Lakes. An accompanying warm front that will move northward through the region with southerly flow developing behind it. Models have slowly started to come into agreement on when the system will enter the region, but have some disagreement on the coverage and overall timing of it. A bump in PoPs across the entire area was seen, though have been capped at chance. Will continue to monitor for severe and heavy precipitation potential. Through the period, temperatures will trend cooler but remain in the low to mid 80s until Wednesday when the majority will see highs in the upper 70s. Lows will follow suit, with temperatures dropping to the high 50s overnight. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/... Primarily VFR with clear skies across most terminals this evening with the exception of some BKN/SCT mid to high level clouds east of I-77. Most terminals will remain VFR through the period with the exception of sites along and west of I-71 (TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE) where patchy MVFR fog could develop early Thursday morning. Higher confidence in fog development and IFR conditions at extreme western sites (TOL/FDY). Lower confidence in fog development at CLE and MFD. Tough to drop any TEMPO vis lower than 1SM given how dry the region has been as of late. Light and variable flow overnight tonight will favor a northeasterly component by daybreak Thursday with stronger northerly flow in a lake breeze once again impacting CLE and ERI Thursday afternoon and early evening. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Sunday. Non-VFR possible in showers as early as Sunday night, but this is low confidence for now. && .MARINE... Quiet conditions will remain over the Lake with high pressure situated to the east over New England leading to east-northeasterly winds at 10-15 knots and waves generally 2 feet or less. Overnight winds will shift out of the southeast before shifting back to the east-northeast during the day. Conditions will persist through the weekend until a more southeasterly 10-15 knot wind develops on Sunday night. Will expect waves to be 2 feet or less during this timeframe. A low pressure system will approach the region Monday and winds will then become predominately out of the south. Marine headlines are not expected for this time period. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM...Kennedy AVIATION...Iverson MARINE...Kennedy