282
FXUS61 KCLE 111040
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build over the region and will
persist through midweek. A cold front swings across the area
Thursday night and early Friday. Another high pressure system
builds overhead by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
6:40 AM Update...
Forecast remains on track and no major changes were made with
this update. Some patchy fog has developed under clear and calm
conditions overnight but will dissipate with sunrise. Overcast
cloud cover over Northwest Pennsylvania will gradually scatter
out as high pressure continues to build overhead today.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will persist over the Great Lakes and eastern
CONUS through the near term forecast period bringing a period of
quiet weather. Cool overnight lows will rebound into the mid 60s
in Northwest Pennsylvania, mid to upper 60s in Northeast Ohio,
and low to mid 70s west of I-71 under a mostly sunny sky. A
weak shortwave aloft enters from the west late tonight and will
usher in mid-upper level clouds from west to east, though very
dry low to mid levels will keep our area dry overnight.
Lows tonight will remain below normal as they settle in the
upper 40s in Northwest Pennsylvania and low to mid 50s
elsewhere.

The high will gradually build toward the East Coast tonight
into Wednesday allowing for broad southerly flow to take shape
across the region. Another quiet and sunny day Wednesday with
temperatures warming slightly above normal as they rise into
the low to mid 80s. Slightly cooler in the mid 70s across
Northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A subtle upper level ridge will move across the Lower and Eastern
Great Lakes region Wednesday night into early Thursday. An upper
level trough will dig down into the Great Lakes region later
Thursday. A cold front will also push into the Great Lakes late
Thursday into Thursday night. Southwest flow will increase ahead of
the cold front Thursday with 850mb temperatures climbing to 16-18C.
Afternoon high temperatures on Thursday will reach the middle 80s to
lower 90s.

The rather weak cold front will slight through northern Ohio and
NWPA late Thursday evening through early Friday morning. The
thermodynamics also look fairly weak when this frontal passage
happens. We will maintain a 30 to 50 percent chance of scattered
showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two when it rolls through
Thursday night. Lingering rain showers Friday morning will give way
to clearing skies during the afternoon. High pressure will build in
from southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region late Friday
into Friday night. High temperatures will be cooler on Friday
ranging from the middle 70s over NWPA/NEOH and lower to middle 80s
over NWOH and central Ohio. Friday night overnight temperatures will
also be cooler in the 50s away from the lakeshore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging will move in on Saturday from the Midwest into
the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions. High pressure at the
surface will be centered over southern Ontario and Quebec building
down across the eastern Great Lakes. There should be plenty of
sunshine Saturday with a light northeast or easterly flow. High
temps on Saturday will range from the upper 70s over NWPA/NEOH and
lower 80s over NWOH. As we look into Sunday and early next week,
there are indications that a summer time ridge of high pressure will
develop and build over the eastern U.S. centered near the Mid-
Atlantic region. Temperatures will rise heading into early next week
and well above average. By Monday and Tuesday, 850mb temperatures
rise to 20-22C. High temperatures will likely be in the lower to
middle 90s. There could be some upper 90s for NWOH. This potential
heat wave could be close to some daily record high temperatures
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will bring calm and mostly clear conditions across
terminals. Mostly VFR across terminals this morning with some patchy
fog at CAK and lingering low to mid level clouds at ERI. Fog
will dissipate with sunrise and clouds will scatter out as the
high builds overhead. Mostly clear through the TAF period but
some high level clouds will move overhead late tonight through
early Wednesday.

Light and variable winds this morning will remain between 5 and
8 knots through the TAF period. Winds turn northerly this
afternoon before turning southerly at the end of this TAF
period.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings are possible with scattered showers Thursday
night into early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over Lake Erie today with a light northerly
flow of less than 10 knots. This high pressure system will shift to
the southeast by Wednesday with south or southwest winds developing
up to 10 knots.  The flow may be weak enough on Wednesday that a
lake breeze could develop Wednesday afternoon. Southwest winds will
increase 10-15 knots on Thursday ahead of a cold front that will
push through southward across Lake Erie Thursday night into early
Friday. Winds behind the cold front Friday will 10 to 15 knots from
the north and northeast.  Northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots will
continue into Saturday. A light southerly flow may return by Sunday
and there could be a setup for a lake breeze Sunday afternoon. No
headlines for the lake are expected at this time for the rest of
the week into the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Griffin