Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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862 FXUS61 KCLE 190531 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 131 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge of high pressure persists over the region through this week. Widespread near-record temperatures will be possible across the area. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop each day. Low pressure arrives near the end of the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 930 PM Update... Slight adjustments were again made to temperatures to account for showers and thunderstorms lowering temperatures. Aside from that, overnight lows are still expected to fall into the upper 60s to low 70s and no other changes were needed. 630 PM Update... Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop across the area this evening, producing locally heavy rainfall. As the sun continues to set, showers should end and leave the area dry for tonight. Only update made was to temperatures to reflect the much cooler temperatures in areas where it had rained today. Also updated the dewpoint temperatures to reflect observations. No other changes were needed with this update as the hot, humid forecast remains on track. Previous Discussion... Ridge of high pressure remains in place over much of the eastern CONUS through the near term and into the rest of week. This will allow for continued heat across the region with high temperatures in the 90s and heat indices each afternoon in the upper 90s to lower 100s. No changes were made to the heat headlines with this update and a Heat Advisory remains in effect through the near term period. Thunderstorms that popped up this afternoon will continue to decrease in coverage and intensity this evening as we lose daytime heating. Rinse and repeat day tomorrow with temperatures rising into the 90s accompanied by dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will once again allow for MLCAPE values to rise to 2000+ J/kg by Wednesday afternoon coupled with DCAPE values in the 900-1200 J/kg range. This will lead to another afternoon of pop up convection with wet downbursts possible to develop across Northeast Ohio for Wednesday. Additionally, above average PWAT values approaching 2 inches (PIT 90th percentile is 1.5 inches) and slow cloud layer wind speed (<10 kt) may lead to instances of flash flooding again tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... A piece of energy is expected to round the upper level ridge north of Lake Erie on Wednesday night as low pressure moves into northern Quebec. A weak cold front does settle south to near Lake Erie but is expected to stall somewhere across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Thursday and Friday are still expected to be hot, but winds shifting to the north late Thursday and continuing on Friday may provide some minimal relief to mainly northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Inland highs are still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s while lakeshore areas may top out in the upper 80s. Heat index values still expected to range from the upper mid 90s to near 100 except may be closer to 90 near the lakeshore with enhanced lake breezes contributing to some relief. Scattered thunderstorms remain possible ahead of and along the cold front on Thursday and near the stalled boundary on Friday. With continued hot and humid conditions and some frontal forcing, can not rule out the potential for a few strong storms again with locally heavy rain possible. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The boundary lifts back north as a warm front on Saturday as low pressure moves east across the Upper Great Lakes. Temperatures warm several degrees again on Saturday and may need to extend the Heat Advisory another day for at least a portion of the forecast area. Saturday night is likely to be quite warm in NW Ohio with continued southwest flow overnight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front on Sunday afternoon, especially for areas along and east of I-71. A break from the heat will finally come behind the cold front on Monday as high temperatures on Monday settle into the mid 70s to mid 80s with much lower humidity. A break in the active weather is also expected Monday and Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead. The break from the heat will tend to be short lived as we trend warmer again by Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/... Using PROB30 again for this 06Z issuance while able to do so and expect more diurnal heating isolated to scattered thunderstorms with towering cumulus in the area as well, and time it for the mid afternoon/early evening hours. Gusts in the PROB30 groups to 30kts possible in storms. Decaying convection in the evening, and leftover high level clouds into the overnight after 00Z Thursday. Outside of thunderstorm activity, surface winds SSW less than 10kts. Outlook...Primarily VFR expected through Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions are possible again Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .MARINE... Generally good marine conditions expected to persist on Lake Erie through Saturday with afternoon lake breezes. Winds will generally be less than 15 knots except with scattered thunderstorms which could produce strong to severe winds. A cold front is forecast to cross Lake Erie on Sunday with southwest winds of 10-20 knots ahead of the front on Sunday and northwest winds of near 15 knots Sunday night into Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for a window of time later Sunday into Monday. && .CLIMATE... A prolonged stretch of hot weather is expected this week. Temperatures are forecast to approach or exceed record highs on several days. The records for Tuesday, June 18 to Friday, June 21 are listed below for our official climate sites. Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-19 98(1995) 94(1994) 92(1995) 94(1994) 94(1994) 92(1931) 06-20 98(1953) 94(1988) 96(1988) 95(1933) 95(1933) 92(2016) 06-21 100(2022) 96(1988) 95(2022) 97(1933) 98(1933) 95(1933) && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023- 027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for PAZ001>003. NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Iverson NEAR TERM...Campbell/Iverson SHORT TERM...KEC LONG TERM...KEC AVIATION...26 MARINE...KEC CLIMATE...