Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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054 FXUS64 KCRP 191727 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1227 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Another couple of warm and humid days are in store for South Texas today and Friday as ridging aloft continues to dominate over the region. Temperatures today are forecast to run a degree or so higher than yesterday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s range. Heat index values will generally range around 105-109 at most locations, but will peak at 110-114 over portions of the Coastal Bend this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect from noon through 6 PM over inland portions of Kleberg, Nueces and San Patricio counties. Elsewhere along the coast, heat indices may meet or exceed Advisory criteria this afternoon, but will be brief enough not to grant its issuance. Temperatures on Friday will be very similar to today, and additional Advisories will need to be evaluated at later forecast packages. A few showers will remain possible today and tomorrow mainly along the sea breeze, but chances will stay below 25%. Based on observations from buoy 42020 swell periods have increased to around 8-10 seconds, but swell heights have remained below 1 foot. Astronomical tides have continued to run about 0.5-0.7 ft above predicted which brought high tide levels at Port Aransas to around 1.7 ft during the last high tide cycle. Astronomical tides will run slightly higher today and Friday, and a Coastal Flood Advisory may be required later on. Have opted for holding off on issuing one right now as I would like to see how these conditions transfer into the coast first, but will need continued monitoring for possible issuance. The risk for rip currents has also remained low, but will also need to be monitored. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 We remain under the influence of mid to upper level ridging as we head into the weekend. Low level moisture in place will allow for low (~20%) chances for showers and storms, generally along the sea breeze, through the weekend. The pattern begins to change late over the weekend into early next week as an upper trough digs towards the Four Corners and ejects across the Plains. An associated cold front will be sent south across the state. This boundary will likely stall to our north. However, some guidance suggests it may make it here (not too confident in this solution but it would be nice). Regardless, moisture will pool ahead of this boundary, leading to an uptick in chances for showers and storms through the work week. High temps through the period look to settle into the 90s with heat indices generally in the 100-105 range. This will promote a minor to moderate heat risk daily. We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal flooding over the weekend. Gerling-Hanson plots reveal a secondary wave system with 9-10s periods. PETSS guidance hints at tides nearing 2ft MSL during high tide this weekend. Confidence is not too high at this time but it is worth monitoring. Lastly, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of low pressure across the Northwest Caribbean. There is a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 7 days as this system drifts north-northwest towards the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Isolated to scattered showers moving north across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, will lead to brief periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be expected through the afternoon and evening across the east. MVFR CIGs along the Rio Grande Plains will lift to VFR levels, as well. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible once again late tonight into early Friday morning, mainly due to brief patchy fog from ALI to VCT, with ALI being the most likely to have reduced visibilities. && .MARINE... Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early next week. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. An approaching upper level disturbance will lead to a low to medium (20-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 95 77 / 20 10 20 0 Victoria 97 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 0 Laredo 97 78 97 77 / 10 10 20 0 Alice 96 76 95 75 / 20 10 20 0 Rockport 93 80 92 80 / 20 10 20 0 Cotulla 98 78 98 77 / 10 0 10 0 Kingsville 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 89 80 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242>244. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ANM LONG TERM....TC AVIATION...TE/81