014
FXUS64 KCRP 201945
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
245 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to medium chance for coastal flooding this weekend

Mid to upper level ridging is expected to continue through tomorrow
night. With near to slightly above normal moisture hanging around,
another low chance for showers is expected tomorrow afternoon as the
sea breeze develops and moves inland. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight and tomorrow night across South Texas with a low to
medium chance for patchy fog to develop with a low chance for
isolated areas of dense fog. Slightly above normal temperatures
tonight will drop to near normal for tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow
night. The threat for coastal flooding will increase this weekend
and long period swells continue across the region. The P-ETSS model
is showing water levels increasing to 1.7-1.8 feet above MSL tonight
and 1.8-2.0 feet above tomorrow night at times of high tide. The
only variable keeping the coastal flood risk at bay is the swell
heights remaining under 1 foot. Lastly, with sufficient low level
moisture and relatively light winds expected again tomorrow,
tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop along the Coastal Bend
and Gulf waters.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Mid-level ridging initially overhead will shift eastward and flatten
out as we head into next week as a deep mid-level trough digs south
into Texas. This trough brings a cold front through north and
potentially central Texas, but it looks to dissipate before having
any affect on our area. Overall, despite the calendar changing to
fall on Sunday, we`re not going to see any traditional fall like
conditions on the horizon...but we live in South Texas and we`re
used to that.  High temperatures remain persistent in the 90s daily
with heat index values north of 100 through mid-week.  Isolated
showers and storms will be possible daily through the weekend but
expect limited activity with PWATs forecast to be generally below
normal through early next week. Moisture will begin to increase by
Tuesday/Wednesday next week and we could see an uptick in activity.

We continue to keep an eye on an area of disorganized convection in
the northwest Caribbean. The NHC continues to hold a 40% chance of
development on this area, but guidance confidence in the details of
its future is low as guidance is all over the place in progression,
first in terms of when it may organize, and then it`s future
movement/strength. We do note a slight increase in swell heights
by mid to late next week associated with this activity, but that
will be dependent on future development.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions are generally going to be expected across all sites
this afternoon through this evening, however, any sites impacted
by the afternoon showers can expect to see MVFR visibilities
and/or ceilings. With models continuing to perform poorly with
fog, went with persistence and put some fog in for tonight
dropping ALI and VCT to IFR. All sites should return to VFR
tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through
Saturday night with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. With
light winds tomorrow morning and sufficient low level moisture,
tropical funnel clouds could briefly develop across the Gulf
waters. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
this weekend to 30-60% chance next week as a cold front stalls
north of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  78  90  77 /  30   0  20   0
Victoria          96  74  94  73 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            96  78  95  76 /  20  10  10   0
Alice             95  76  93  74 /  30   0  20   0
Rockport          93  80  92  79 /  10   0  10  10
Cotulla           98  78  96  76 /  30   0  10   0
Kingsville        93  78  91  75 /  30   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       88  81  88  80 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JCP