Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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494 FXUS64 KCRP 160448 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1148 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 As you probably already knew, it`s going to be hot once again over South Texas. We are still under the influence of the mid-level ridge currently over the southern United States that is tracking eastwards. So, outside of a few isolated pop-up diurnal showers and thunderstorms we will continue to experience hot and humid conditions through Sunday. We could flirt with some heat stress related issues with the presence of moisture filtering back into the area. Deterministic models have heat indices around 110 for tomorrow which could leave a low chance for Heat Advisory criteria to be met. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Key Messages: - Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development. - Increasing moisture leading to higher rain chances and potential for localized flooding next week. - Increasing risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where conditions are favorable for gradual development of a broad area of low pressure. There is a 50% chance of a tropical system developing across the southwestern gulf over the next 7 days. Deep tropical moisture will be drawn northward from the southern gulf early next week in response to a strengthening southeast low level flow. PWATs are progged to increase to 2-2.5 inches across the eastern half of S TX by Tuesday and as high as 2.8 by Wednesday. The GFS has up to 3 inches across the southern Coastal Bend. The very deep moisture combined with a surface to mid level tropical wave moving west across TX, will lead to increasing rain chances through the week. Wednesday and Thursday may possibly have the heaviest and most widespread rainfall. However, these are days 5 and 6 and changes to position, timing of the tropical moisture may change with upcoming model runs. The wave is forecast to move west of the area by Friday with decreasing rain chances as a ridge builds across S TX. At this time, total rainfall amounts Monday through Friday are expected to range from 4-6 inches across the Victoria Crossroads, 3- 5 inches across the Coastal Plains and Brush Country to 1-2 inches along the Rio Grande. The Weather Prediction Center has a marginal (5%) risk of excessive rainfall across the Victoria Crossroads Tuesday, then a slight (15%-40%) risk across a majority of S TX on Wednesday. The heavier downpours may lead to flash flooding, especially across low drainage areas and urban areas. There is also an increased risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding next week due to strengthening southeast to east winds expected across the gulf waters, especially if a tropical system does develop across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please continue to monitor the latest updates for the upcoming week && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 VFR conditions are currently in place across all terminals. Winds will remain around 10 knots through the night before strengthening through the afternoon hours Sunday. Similar to last night, there will be brief window closer to sunrise where we can see MVFR vis/cigs develop at ALI and COT. There is a low chance for some isolated showers at CRP Sunday morning but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Gusty southeasterly winds will weaken shortly after 00Z Monday. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through the remainder of the weekend. Moderate to strong onshore flow will develop Monday into Tuesday, then is expected to become strong by mid week with advisory conditions possible. The potential development of a tropical disturbance in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could increase wave heights up to 8-10 feet across the offshore Texas coastal waters. The National Hurricane Center has given this disturbance a medium 50% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, deep moisture is expected to move into the area leading to a medium to high (50-90%) chance of showers and thunderstorms by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 79 94 79 94 / 10 10 10 40 Victoria 75 94 75 93 / 0 10 10 50 Laredo 78 104 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 98 76 98 / 0 10 10 30 Rockport 83 94 82 93 / 10 20 20 50 Cotulla 78 103 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 98 78 96 / 0 10 10 40 Navy Corpus 83 93 83 92 / 10 20 30 50 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...NP LONG TERM....TE AVIATION...TC/95