906
FXUS64 KCRP 260847
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
347 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Breif periods of heat index values of 105-111 degrees this
  afternoon

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday

As the eastern periphery of the mid to upper level ridge located in
the West Texas region weakens today through tomorrow, a couple of
showrtwaves are expected to wrap around it, increasing our rain
chances. The vorticity associated with the weak shortwave tomorrow
will interact with PWAT of 2.05-2.15" which will result in low (less
than 25%) chances of light showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms.

With near normal temperatures continuing today and tomorrow, heat
index values will reamin at resonable levels for late June. Heat
index values will generally reamin between 105-109 degrees for
much of the day with brief periods of heat indicies incrasing to
110-112 degrees from 1-5 pm this afternoon. With heat indicies
expected to bounce above and below 110 degrees this afternoon,
have opted not to issue a Heat Advisory at this time, however,
dewpoints will need to be closely monitored as any increase in
dewpoints could lead to advsiory conditions.

With waters in the bays still receeding from the imapcts of Tropical
Storm Alberto, dangerous currents could continue to linger through
Thursday. Therefore, have gone with a moderate risk of rip currents
through Thursday. Please use caution if entering the waters,
especially near piers and jetties where the threat it the greatest.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Overall, not too much change with this long term forecast update.
The upper level ridge will remain anchored in place aloft. An
inverted trough will cut into the southern extent of the ridge late
Thursday into Friday. This will provide some low end rain chances
across the region. Without much surface forcing, our greatest
rain chances will be across the Coastal Bend as a low level
convergence axis becomes established along the coast. The upper
level ridge axis will shift towards the southeastern CONUS late in
the weekend. Meanwhile, a tropical wave will be traveling from
the Atlantic towards the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a
20% chance of development over the next 7 days as conditions could
become more conducive for gradual development late this week. If
this wave makes into the SW Gulf, we could see a swath of deep
tropical moisture spread across the region. This would ramp up our
rain chances on Sunday. Rain chances would likely continue into
early next week.

Taking a look at our temps, highs will generally settle into the low
90s to around 100 degrees. Afternoon heat indices will climb into
the 105-110 range. A few spots across the southern Coastal Bend may
see heat indices enter the 110-114 range at times. This will lead to
a moderate risk of heat-related impacts for much of the long term
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

After a night of light southeast winds and VFR conditions, MVFR
visibility and occasional MVFR ceilings are possible for VCT, ALI,
and COT. Conditions will return to VFR with generally light
southeast winds by mid-morning Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Weak to moderate flow will persist through late this week before
increasing to moderate Friday afternoon through Saturday. There is a
low to medium, 20-40%, chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday
through the weekend, potentially lingering into early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 341 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

A River Flood Warning was issued late last night for the Nueces
River near Tilden. Water levels will crest around 14.1` this morning
(14.0 is minor flood) and remain over 14 feet through much of the
day. This is likely a result of water coming from San Casimiro Creek
routing into the Nueces.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    94  79  94  81 /   0   0  20   0
Victoria          94  77  94  78 /  10   0  20   0
Laredo            99  78  99  79 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             96  76  97  78 /   0   0  20   0
Rockport          94  82  93  82 /   0   0  20  10
Cotulla          102  79 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        94  78  95  79 /   0   0  20   0
Navy Corpus       92  83  92  83 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP/84
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...LS