351
FXUS64 KCRP 210858
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
358 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

A quieter short term forecast than in recent days, however we
will continue to see isolated to scattered showers through the
area as deep moisture remains high - near 2" - though well below
the near 3 inches we saw Wednesday evening. Coastal flooding
continues, especially along the bays where water will be slow to
retreat. Guidance indicates another high tide nearing 3ft above
MSL today, so will leave the coastal flood warning in effect for
now, but may be able to cut back to an advisory by this evening.
Will monitor today. The rip current risk however will remain high
through tomorrow as long period swells continue to push toward
the coast.

High temperatures both today and tomorrow will remain below
normal - around 90. Low temperatures however are seasonal in the
mid and upper 70s with humid conditions.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
development

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
impacts

The keyword for the long term is going to be uncertainty. Let`s
start with what we do know, an upper-level ridge will build aloft
as a mid-level ridge moves southwestward from the Mid-Atlantic
States. And this is where uncertainty begins. This should increase
subsidence and reduce cloud cover by early next week and allow
warmer temperatures to return to the forecast with PWAT values
remaining in the top 10th percentile of climatology ranging from
2- 2.20". If this solution pans out, then dangerous heat index
values will return with a 40-60% chance of heat index values over
110 degrees Tuesday through Thursday of next week with a moderate
risk of heat-relates impacts.

However, the National Hurricane Center will be continuing to monitor
the Bay of Campeche for possible tropical development as the Central
American Gyre remains active. Probabilities for tropical development
at this time is at 60% over the next 7 days. If a tropical cyclone
does develop, then that could definitely alter the scenario above.
If a system does develop and moves west-northwestward or
northwestward as per the NHC forecast, then increased cloud cover
can be expected with heat indices being a few degrees less and rain
chances could be significantly higher than the scenario above.

Due to the high uncertainty, heavily leaned on the NBM which is a
blend of multiple models to show the range of solutions. Please
check back this weekend and into next week as the forecast becomes
clearer and confidence increased one way or another.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Have added VCSH mentioned, mainly for eastern sites as isolated
showers continue in the area, and with very deep moisture, this is
likely to continue. Primarily MVFR conditions are expected east,
though at times this will break out to VFR. Some question as to
fog development in this morning. Recent rains would increase rain
chances if winds can weaken enough. Have mention at ALI, but left
out at VCT where showers are more possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Wave heights continue to gradually subside, but remain rough
today. Small craft advisory conditions are expected through the
day in open waters. Expect a light to moderate onshore flow to
persist. Scattered showers will remain in the forecast through
the weekend. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  78  90  78 /  30  30  50  30
Victoria          89  74  91  73 /  40  20  10  10
Laredo            92  76  91  75 /  40  20  60  20
Alice             91  75  91  75 /  40  20  50  20
Rockport          91  81  92  80 /  40  30  40  30
Cotulla           92  76  93  75 /  30  10  30   0
Kingsville        90  76  90  77 /  40  30  60  30
Navy Corpus       89  82  89  82 /  40  40  50  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>345-347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...PH