Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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817 FXUS64 KCRP 190522 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1222 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Persistence will be the main driver of the short term forecast as a mid-level high builds over TX with an area of low pressure along the east coast and another low near the CA coast. This will promote mostly dry conditions with very low chances (10-20%) for any precipitation driven by the seabreeze. No other lifting mechanisms are expected and PWAT`s will decrease from around 2 inches this morning to around 1.8 inches tomorrow as the mid- levels dry out even more. Afternoon highs today and tomorrow will settle in the 85-100 degree range with overnight lows around 75-80 degrees. Despite persistence, temperatures may be a degree or two higher tomorrow, increasing the likelihood for a Heat Advisory but will let the next shift take another look and decide if one is needed. Heat indices this afternoon are approaching 110 along the Coastal Bend. Tomorrow heat indices will range 105-110 with the Coastal Bend/Coastal Plains expected to be on the higher end. Regardless, the HeatRisk will be Moderate to Major and still poses a danger. Please continue to take proper precautions to avoid the heat. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Key Message: - Low chances for coastal flooding this weekend The early portion of the extended forecast continues to be dominated by a mid to upper level ridge increasing subsidence across the area with near normal moisture. Although wide spread showers aren`t expected this weekend, there is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms developing each afternoon activated by the seabreeze. By early next week, an mid level low pressure will swing through the Rockies and Four Corners region ejecting a cold front into Texas. While this front is expected to stall north of our CWA next week, moisture pooling up ahead of the stalled front will increase our rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday with a low (15-25%) chance of widespread showers across the region. Near normal temperatures are expected each day and night, especially next week with the added cloud cover and possible precipitation ahead of the stalled front. Coastal flooding will once again be a concern across the Gulf facing beaches of South Texas this weekend. Models are showing 8 to 9 second swell periods returning to the region increasing water levels to 1.7-1.9 feet above mean sea level. If this verifies, there will be a low chance for coastal flooding with beach inundation up to 1 foot during times of high tide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Winds will continue to diminish becoming light overnight. Moisture is still in place so, while guidance continues to downplay any chances for fog or low ceilings, have once again gone with persistence and put in TEMPO groups for LIFR ceilings for ALI and VCT from 10Z-14Z. Have also included a TEMPO for MVFR ceilings from 10Z-14Z for CRP. Otherwise, VFR with light winds. && .MARINE... Issued at 314 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow may become moderate at times through the end of the week. There`s a low (10-20%) chance for showers the rest of the week, mainly offshore. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected this weekend into next week. Low (15-25%) chances for rain this weekend will increase to low to medium (25-50%) chances next week as a cold front stalls north of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 78 92 78 92 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 75 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 10 Laredo 77 96 78 96 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 76 96 75 95 / 0 20 0 20 Rockport 80 93 80 92 / 0 10 0 10 Cotulla 78 99 78 99 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 77 93 77 93 / 0 20 0 20 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF LONG TERM....JCP AVIATION...LS/77