533
FXUS64 KCRP 141926
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
226 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A subsident mid level ridge extending across the Southern U.S. will
continue to dominate our weather in the short term.  Our atmosphere
will continue to dry out with precipitable water values dropping
from near 2" this morning to around 1.50" on Saturday and 1.25" by
Saturday Night.  Thus we should see fewer clouds and at most only a
stray shower. The low level flow will remain weak tonight and early
Saturday, however the gradient tightens some by Saturday afternoon
as a trough moves into the central plains.  Temperatures will remain
a few degrees above climatology and Heat Indices will remain in
check and generally less than 105.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Key Messages:

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical
  development

- Rain chances increase next week

The National Hurricane Center will continue to monitor the Bay of
Campeche for potential development during the early to middle parts
of next week. Currently, the chance of formation stands at 50% over
the next seven days. Deterministic models show good agreement on the
formation of this closed surface low with a consensus on a westward
trajectory into Mexico. However, keep in mind that this forecast can
change as we are still quite a few days out. Regardless of
development, there is medium to high confidence that an influx of
tropical moisture will lead to increased local rain chances through
next week as PWAT values increase to 2.25-2.70". The NBM along with
the global ensemble models continue to show a large spread of about
2.75-3.50" rainfall between the 25th and 75th percentile next week,
with the most significant days begin mid-week. Therefore, confidence
remains low at this time in regards to rainfall amounts across the
region.

Seasonal temperatures are expected to continue Sunday through
Tuesday with areas along the coast in the lower to mid 90s and areas
in the Coastal Plains to the Brush Country in the upper 90s to near
102 degrees. As we head into next week with the expected
precipitation, daytime highs are expected to be cooler than normal
with highs topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s region wide. As
the moisture begins to increase next week, heat indices are
expected to climb into the 105-110 degree range Sunday through
Tuesday with a low chance of heat advisory conditions Monday and
Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Expect scattered VFR clouds to continue spreading inland across
the coastal plains into the brush country this afternoon with
light onshore winds. Winds become light and variable overnight
with mostly clear skies. Cant rule out some patchy light fog
(MVFR) near the VCT Terminal toward morning, but not confident
enough to include in the TAF. Winds will briefly gust to near 20
knots in Laredo this evening. Clouds will remain scattered and
winds will be light to start the day Saturday as weak high
pressure persists over the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow can be expected through Saturday
Night. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected Sunday with
winds strengthening to moderate to strong Monday. Depending on the
development of the expected disturbance in the Bay of Campeche,
winds could increase to over 20 knots by mid-week. Medium to high
chances of rain are expected across the local waters from Monday
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    80  94  79  94 /   0  20  10  30
Victoria          74  95  73  95 /  10  10   0  30
Laredo            78 101  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             75  97  74  98 /   0  20  10  20
Rockport          82  94  82  93 /   0  20  10  30
Cotulla           78 102  77 103 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        77  97  77  96 /   0  20  10  30
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  92 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM/75
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...JM