399
FXUS64 KCRP 180755
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
255 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Ridging will settle over the region through the short-term period
leading to subsidence across the area. PWAT values are progged to
gradually decline from 1.9-2.0" this morning to around 1.6-1.8" by
Thursday afternoon, which is around the 75th percentile for this
time of year. With enough moisture still lingering around (mainly in
the lower levels), have maintained some low end PoPs in the forecast
(<20%) for today and tomorrow, as a few showers/storms may still be
possible. The activity is expected to start during the morning hours
over the marine zones, before transitioning inland with the sea
breeze.

Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today, and a few more on
Thursday. Highs will generally range from the upper 80s along the
coast to the upper 90s out west both days. Heat index values are
forecast to peak at 110 degrees across portions of the Coastal
Plains today, but I`m not anticipating it to last long enough to
grant an Advisory. Having said that, will pass a note to the day
shift to see how the day trends, in case an Advisory is actually
required. On Thursday, Advisory conditions are a bit more likely,
and will need to be re-evaluated in later packages. The HeatRisk
will be at mostly Moderate levels today, and at Moderate to Major
on Thursday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 70s to low 80s
range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Overall, not much change with this long term forecast update. Upper
level ridging will remain in place as we head into the weekend.
Sufficient low level moisture will allow for low chances of showers
and thunderstorms daily (15-20%), generally along the sea breeze. As
we head through the weekend, a stout upper level low will dive south
towards the Desert Southwest and eject across the Plains Sunday into
Monday. This upper low will kick a cold front south across the
state. Unfortunately, it looks to remain well north of the region.

We will need to keep an eye on the potential for minor coastal
flooding over the weekend. Gerling-Hanson plots reveal a secondary
and tertiary wave system with 9-10s periods. PETSS guidance hints at
tides nearing 2ft MSL during high tide this weekend. Confidence is
not too high at this time but it is worth monitoring.

High temps through the long term look to top out in the 90s with
lows dipping into the 70s. Heat indices on Friday look to settle
into the 105-109 range, promoting a moderate to major heat risk.
Over the weekend and into next week, our max heat indices drop to
around 100-105, providing a minor to moderate heat risk.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 955 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

With little change in the forecast pattern, expect we will still
experience fog in the morning as we have in the past few mornings.
Model guidance has not handled this well over the last few days
so, based on persistence, have continued TEMPO groups for
IFR/LIFR fog for VCT and ALI from 11Z-15Z. For the same
reasoning, have included MVFR ceilings for CRP, LRD, and VCT in
the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected with light
winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Weak to at times moderate onshore flow will continue into early
next week. There is a low (15-25%) chance of showers and
thunderstorms through the weekend. An approaching upper level
disturbance will lead to a low to medium (20-40%) chance for
showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    93  78  93  77 /  10  10  10   0
Victoria          95  75  95  74 /  10   0  10   0
Laredo            96  78  97  77 /   0   0  10   0
Alice             95  76  95  75 /  20   0  10   0
Rockport          92  79  92  79 /  10  10  10   0
Cotulla           98  78  99  77 /   0   0  10   0
Kingsville        94  77  95  76 /  20   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       89  80  89  80 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANM/88
LONG TERM....TC/95
AVIATION...LS