366
FXUS64 KCRP 041732
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1232 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme heat risk conditions expected Tuesday

- Marine/Coastal Hazards (Small Craft Advisory, Coastal Flood
Advisory, High Risk of Rip Currents)

- Low chance of thunderstorms in the Brush Country and Victoria
Crossroads Tuesday evening/night

There is a continued threat for dangerous heat conditions across the
region Tuesday. Heat indices along portions of the southern Coastal
Plains will likely reach 115+ by midday and last through this
evening. Areas in the northern Brush Country flirt with this
possibility as well though the duration should be below 2 hours.
Given these factors the Heat Advisory continues today for entire CWA
with portions of the southern Coastal Bend being upgraded to an
Excessive Heat Warning. Looking forward into Wednesday, it will be a
similar story in terms of heat related threats.

The presence of a persistent southeasterly fetch around 20 knots
through this evening in the southern bays and nearshore waters S of
Port Aransas will be the primary cause for SCA conditions this
afternoon. The tides have been running about 1 foot above normal
which will likely result in minor coastal flooding through 1 PM this
afternoon. In addition to all of this, the High Risk of rip currents
was extended through Wednesday evening due to presence of the new
moon as well as the moderate to strong flow. This will create
dangerous swimming conditions along our Gulf facing beaches.

The pattern is remaining similar to what we have experienced the
past few days. As the upper level ridge weakens, a shortwave will
ride along the periphery of the ridge bringing some associated
vorticity. Storms will fire along the Sierra Madre like previous
days and more than likely fall apart before reaching the CWA. This
will likely be the outcome though a slim chance (<15%) for it to
reach our area and progress from the Brush Country through to the
Victoria Crossroads does exist.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 446 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat continues through Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and rip currents look to continue through
Thursday.

The long term forecast opens up with a trough sliding across the
Midwest as upper level ridging builds across the Western US. Also,
lurking off the Baja coast is a closed off upper low. Upper level
ridging will keep generally rain-free conditions in store through
next weekend. However, a few impulses may ride around the eastern
periphery of the ridge which may help trigger a rogue shower/storm
as we reach peak heating. Confidence is pretty low in this outcome
though. Upper level ridging begins to weaken by Friday as the trough
to our east dive south and the Baja cutoff low gets wrapped up in
the northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow for a slight relief
from the heat (more on that later). As we head into next week, the
cutoff low opens up and ejects across the Southern Plains. This will
bring the next real shot of rain to the region... with that said we
are still only looking at 15-20% PoPs.

Taking a look at our prolong heat episode. Thursday will feature
another day of a major to extreme risk of heat-related impacts.
High temps look to settle into the low 90s along the coast to around
105 out west. There is a medium to high chance of heat indices
exceeding 110 Thursday. Heat Advisories will likely continue through
Thursday with a low to medium chance of an Excessive Heat Advisory.
As the ridge begins to weaken on Friday, we will also see slight
drier air work into the region. While high temps remain hot in the
90-105 range, heat indices top out around 105-109. This will present
more a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. This "relief"
won`t last long as dangerous heat creeps back in by next week.

Lastly, minor coastal flooding will remain possible during times of
high tide through Thursday (and maybe Friday). A new moon on the
6th, a persistent southeasterly flow, and swells hovering around 8s
will help drive water up to the dunes. These conditions will also
continue to promote a high risk of rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are ongoing across area terminals with the
exception of CRP which is at high end MVFR levels. Conditions will
improve over the next few hours with all sites remaining at VFR
through late tonight before falling back to MVFR levels. Aside
from this, winds will continue to be gusty this afternoon at
around 25-30 knots. Although winds will generally remain elevated
through the night, there will be a small period early Wednesday
morning when winds will fall below 12 knots. Breezy conditions
will redevelop around mid morning on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 446 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

A moderate to occasionally strong southeasterly flow will persist
through the middle of week. Winds will increase over the southern
bays and waters this afternoon through this evening, leading to
Small Craft Advisory conditions. This will diminish to a more
moderate flow overnight going into Wednesday morning. Onshore
flow gradually weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming weak to
moderate Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    95  82  96  80 /  10  10  10  10
Victoria          94  79  96  76 /   0  10  10  10
Laredo           105  80 107  79 /  10   0  10  20
Alice            102  79 102  77 /  10  10  10  10
Rockport          91  82  92  81 /  10  10   0  10
Cotulla          105  81 105  79 /  10  10  10  20
Kingsville       101  81 100  79 /  10  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       91  83  92  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>231-239-240.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ232>234-244>247-
     342>344-346-347.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ241>243.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236-
     237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....TC
AVIATION...ANM/88