202
FXUS64 KCRP 060657
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
157 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisory in effect this afternoon for much of the area.
- Patchy morning fog possible each of the next two days.

Some patchy fog may develop this morning across parts of the
Coastal Bend, with the highest probabilities (20% chance of less
than 1 mile visibility) across the Victoria Crossroads and in the
Alice area.

Another hot day is in store for the region with a Heat Advisory in
effect this afternoon across the Brush Country and the southern
half of the Coastal Plains. Heat index values will exceed 110
degrees for much of the afternoon. Winds will be a bit lighter
than we have seen the past few days as high pressure builds across
the area.

As the high pressure builds to the south through Friday we will
remain dry and initially a bit hazy. However, as the high pushes
far enough south tonight into Friday, that should push those hazy
conditions farther south and out of the area.

With the light winds and near saturated lower levels, we will
likely see some patchy fog develop across the Coastal Plains
Friday morning. Heat index values will be a bit lower Friday
afternoon and should remain below advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat-related impacts can be expected this
weekend, becoming minor to moderate early next week.

Major heat-related impacts are possible this weekend across mainly
the inland Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains with moderate
across the Victoria Crossroads. Heat Index values are expected to be
less than 110 degrees, but can not rule out brief heat indices
around 110 across a few locations in the afternoons. Slightly cooler
temperatures by 2-4 degrees Monday through Wednesday should result
in Heat Index values of 100-109 and minor to moderate heat-related
impacts.

A mid level high pressure system is progged to track eastward across
TX this weekend, keeping conditions very warm and humid and with
little chance of rain. By Sunday night, the high pressure is
forecast to be east of the area with a trough approaching from the
west. This will increase rain chances to a slight (10-20%)chance on
Monday. The low PoPs are due to limited moisture and a capped
environment. Another mid level high quickly builds across Mexico and
approaches TX resulting in a northwest flow aloft. Models indicate
weak embedded short waves tracking southeast through mid week
leading to a low (5-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day. Most locations will remain rain free.

The north to northwest flow aloft may push a late season cold front
into S TX Mon or Tue. However, temperatures will still be on the
warm side with highs in the low 90s along the coast to around 100
along the Rio Grande on Tuesday. There remains a lot of uncertainty
given the range of model solutions this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

CIGs and VSBYs are expected to be predominantly VFR overnight
with periods of MVFR. ALI to VCT are the most likely to have
patchy fog and low clouds toward early Thursday morning. The SREF
probability of visibilities less than 1SM is low (<20%). Thus, IFR
conditions are not expected, but can not be ruled out. Have
included TEMPOs to address brief MVFR conditions generally after
08Z through around 13Z. VFR conditions will prevail during the day
Thursday along with light south to southeast winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will persist into next week. There
is a low 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms Sunday, increasing
to low to moderate 20 to 40% chance Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  77  94  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          99  74  97  74 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo           102  77 103  76 /  10   0   0   0
Alice            100  75  99  75 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          93  80  92  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla          104  77 104  76 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        98  77  96  76 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       92  81  92  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ229>231-239>244-342>344.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345-
     442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...TE