383
FXUS64 KCRP 012321
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
621 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances for rain overnight

Despite a clean radar at this time, there is a low to medium chance
for redevelopment across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads as the atmosphere continues to recover with daytime
heating and their convective temperatures is reached. As for
possible triggers, an outflow boundary moving towards the coast from
the Gulf from this mornings storms could interact with the 4,000-
4,500 J/kg of CAPE to initiate thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm does
develop, there is a Slight Risk of the storm becoming severe as per
SPC Convective Outlook. After drying out this evening, there is
another low chance for rain, this time the focus being across the
Brush Country and Coastal Plains. Hi-res models are showing a
decaying MCS from West Texas this evening pushing southeastward into
the Brush Country around La Salle and pushing toward the coast.
Therefore, went with a 15-30% chance for measurable precipitation
after midnight from the Brush Country to the Coastal Bend.

We will begin to dry out tomorrow and tomorrow night as the
miserable heat returns to the forecast. Daytime highs tomorrow are
expected to range from the lower 90s along the coast to near 102
degrees across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains with heat
indices ranging from 103-109 degrees across the northern Coastal
Bend and Victoria Crossroads to 107-114 degrees from the southern
Coastal Bend through the Coastal Plains and into the Brush Country.
Therefore, there is a medium to high chance that a heat advisory
will be needed for tomorrow afternoon. Unfortunately, overnight
temperatures will remain mild with temperatures only expected to
drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Please continue to practice
heat safety and remain hydrated if working or spending time
outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Minor coastal flooding likely with water levels approaching the
dunes early Wednesday and Thursday mornings

- Low to medium chance of major to extreme heat-related impacts
daily Monday through Thursday

A mid-upper level ridge will be in place Monday, keeping conditions
very warm. However, a shortwave will push through Monday night,
bringing a low chance of showers and storms over the Rio Grande
Plains and Brush Country where a cluster of storms over northeast
Mexico has a low chance of persisting into the aforementioned area.

Heading through the middle of next week, the mid-level flow changes
quite a bit with a closed low over the eastern Pacific deepening and
moving northward into southern California near the end of the work
week. This will cause a great weakness in the flow aloft with
primarily ridging impacts in place in terms of rain-free and hot
conditions. There is a low to medium (30-40%) chance of heat index
values at least 110 Monday through Thursday. High temperatures
ranging from the low 90s along the coast to around 105 over the
Brush Country.

Last but not least, moderate to strong southeasterly flow in
combination of the new moon astronomical high tide poses a high risk
of minor coastal flooding along the Middle Texas Coast early
Wednesday morning and early Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Conditions are expected to go from VFR to MVFR between 02-06Z
across the eastern TAF sites and 05-09Z across the western TAF
sites as clouds develop and spread across S TX this evening. The
main concern is whether storms that develop around the Big Bend
area, hold together long enough to reach S TX overnight. COT and
LRD have a better chance of TSRAs, therefore, that has been
included for those sites beginning after 06Z. SHRAs have been
included in the ALI, CRP and VCT TAF sites around 10Z or later
with the expectation that storms will be diminishing. Confidence
is medium (25-40%) that storms will reach COT and LRD and is low
(10-20%) that storms will reach the coast due to increasing
stability overnight. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms across
the northern half of S TX. By mid morning Sunday, conditions will
improve to VFR levels once again.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeast winds are expected tonight
with winds increasing to moderate to strong tomorrow and tomorrow
night with a medium chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions. Moderate
to strong onshore flow will persist Monday through early
Wednesday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions may occur at
times each afternoon, generally over the southern bays and waters.
Onshore flow then weakens through the day Wednesday, becoming
weak to moderate Thursday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    81  94  81  94 /  30  20   0   0
Victoria          77  94  79  93 /  10  20   0   0
Laredo            81 102  80 104 /  10   0   0   0
Alice             79  98  78  99 /  30  10   0   0
Rockport          82  91  83  91 /  20  10   0   0
Cotulla           80 102  79 104 /  40   0   0  10
Kingsville        80  95  80  96 /  20  10   0   0
Navy Corpus       83  92  83  91 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JCP
LONG TERM....EMF
AVIATION...TE/81