Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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378 FXUS64 KCRP 210801 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 301 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Water vapor imagery this morning reveals an upper level ridge anchored across the Southern Plains. This ridge will remain in control for one more day before it begins to flatten out on Sunday as an upper trough lifts across the Plains. Just as we saw yesterday, can`t rule out a few tropical funnels this morning as winds remain light over the Middle Texas coast. We continue with a low (~20%) chance of showers and storms along the sea breeze today and tomorrow as low level moisture remains in place. Any storms that develop will be capable of gusty winds as forecast soundings hint at DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg. Light winds tonight will promote another round of patchy fog and low level stratus across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. High temperatures today will warm into the low 90s along the coast to the mid 90s out west. Heat indices look to range from 100-105 which would promote a moderate heat risk for most of the region. A weakening ridge will help us trim off a couple of degrees from our highs on Sunday. Lastly, we continue to monitor for minor coastal flooding during our next few high tide cycles. Swells periods are about 7s as of writing. Gerling-Hanson plots have been persistent in suggesting a secondary wave system around 9-10s. However, swell heights should remain less than a foot. Therefore, confidence is low in our coastal flood threat at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 300 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The long term continues to remain on track from the previous issuance. The mid level ridge that is currently over the region is expected to shift eastwards early next week concurrently with a mid to upper level trough digging into Texas. This is expected to eject a cold front that will stall to the north before dissipating before it reaches the area. These factors will allow for moisture to seep back into the area allowing for daily sea breeze showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given the high temperatures remaining in the 90s and present moisture through the long term there will be a Minor to Moderate Risk for heat related impacts. The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean Sea that now has 60% chance of development over the next 7 days. Continue to be prepared as hurricane season doesn`t end until November 30th (www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 A similar pattern to the previous few days will lead to a fairly consistent TAF forecast. Model guidance still struggles with any fog development but, since persistence suggests we keep some morning fog in for ALI and VCT, have put a mention of MVFR to LIFR visibility, as well as MVFR ceilings, for these sites from 09Z through 14Z. MVFR ceilings will also be possible for LRD and COT, so have this mentioned from 11Z-14Z as well. Currently, have no mention of showers for any site, but it is not out of the question that sites may need this added as isolated showers will be possible Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions remain. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to continue through the weekend along with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. The combination of light winds and sufficient low level moisture may lead to tropical funnel development both this morning and Sunday morning. Most of these funnel clouds will be short lived and typically do not touch the ground. However, you should be prepared to seek shelter in the event a funnel does reach the ground. The chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend to 30-60% next week as a cold front stalls north of the area. Onshore flow is expected to increase to moderate by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 90 77 90 76 / 20 0 20 10 Victoria 95 73 93 72 / 0 0 20 0 Laredo 96 77 95 74 / 10 0 10 0 Alice 94 75 94 73 / 20 0 20 0 Rockport 92 80 92 79 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 97 77 97 75 / 10 0 10 0 Kingsville 92 76 92 74 / 20 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 88 79 / 10 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC/95 LONG TERM....NP/92 AVIATION...LS