Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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071 FXUS64 KCRP 201744 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1244 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major heat risk today Water vapor imagery this morning reveals upper level ridging anchored across the region. At the surface, patchy fog is beginning to develop across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Any fog that develops will clear out shortly after sunrise. Sufficient moisture in place will warrant a 20-30% chance of showers and storms today. Streamers showers are expected through the morning hours with activity spreading inland along the sea breeze. Any storms that develop will be capable of heavy rain and gusty winds. However, they should be short-lived due to lack of shear. Convection will wane through the evening hours as we lose daytime heating. Light and variable winds tonight will promote another round of patchy fog across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads early Saturday morning. A similar story is in store on Saturday as the upper ridge remains in control. Isolated sea breeze showers and storms will move inland during the late morning and afternoon hours. High temperatures will settle into the 90s today along with heat indices in the 105-109 range. This will promote a moderate to major heat risk. A few locations may briefly reach 110 but not for long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. Lastly, bumped up the rip current risk to moderate both today and tomorrow. Swells have been ranging from 9-12s at buoys 19 and 20. However, swell heights have been less than a foot. Gerling-Hanson plots suggest a secondary wave system will keep these increased swells around so felt confident enough to upgrade the risk. We will continue to monitor our tides as we head into our next high tide cycle (346 AM at Port Aransas). Tides are running roughly 0.5` above normal so it doesn`t appear that we will reach criteria but we will keep an eye on local webcams and obs. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Key Message: - Minor to Moderate Risk for heat related impacts next week Expect the upper level ridge currently over the region to gradually track to the east early next week as a mid to upper level trough digs around the Four Corners region. This is expected to eject a cold front into Texas that will stall to our north. Moisture will begin pooling along the front which will combine with the sea breeze to allow for a low to medium chance (20-40%) for showers and thunderstorms daily through the end of the week. In terms of high temperatures, unfortunately it will continue to remain hot through the remainder of the long term. Highs will climb to the 90s daily with heat indices around 105 across the region. Given the conditions there will be a minor to moderate risk for heat related impacts. The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a broad area of low pressure that has now a 40% chance of development over the next 7 days. Currently they are messaging that a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week. Continue to check back for future updates and make sure that you are prepared (www.weather.gov/safety/hurricane). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions are generally going to be expected across all sites this afternoon through this evening, however, any sites impacted by the afternoon showers can expect to see MVFR visibilities and/or ceilings. With models continuing to perform poorly with fog, went with persistence and put some fog in for tonight dropping ALI and VCT to IFR. All sites should return to VFR tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 250 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow will continue into next week. A 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms today through the weekend will increase to a 30-60% chance next week as a cold front stalls north of the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 77 90 76 / 30 10 20 0 Victoria 96 74 93 73 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 96 77 95 76 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 95 77 93 73 / 30 10 20 0 Rockport 93 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 10 Cotulla 98 78 95 76 / 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 93 77 91 75 / 30 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 88 80 / 20 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TC LONG TERM....NP AVIATION...JCP/84