748
FXUS64 KCRP 221703
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1203 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 828 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Going forecast looks good. A band of isolated to scattered showers
will push west across Nueces/Kleberg Counties this morning, making
their way into Duval and Webb Counties in the next hour or two.
Otherwise, expect low chances (~20%) for additional showers
through the day, especially for the more southern locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Isolated convection continues over the waters early this morning,
and we should see at least a modest increase in coverage over the
area today. Deterministic global model guidance and NBM indicate a
fairly high prob of precip today, however meso models are
substantially lower, keeping the bulk of the activity south. Will
lean more toward the high res guidance as ridging builds down over
South Texas. Still have chance Pops mainly in southern tier of
counties, and isolated elsewhere, but think more activity will be
south.  This convection is associated with a disturbance in the Bay
of Campeche that has a 50% chance of development into a tropical
depression this weekend. If it develops, the aforementioned ridge
would keep the system south, and expect any impacts reaching this
far north would be limited. Wind field is much smaller than what we
just saw with Alberto, thus less wind here, and less opportunity for
marine concerns to grow as well.

Speaking of marine concerns, we are still seeing elevated water
levels, especially in the bays, thus the coastal flood advisory
continues. The extra water that pushed into the bays will take more
time to exit those bays through just a few locations between
islands. Add in the fact that moderate long period swells continue
to push toward the coast, that only slows the water from receding.
Will also continue a high risk of rip currents along gulf facing
beached due to the same swells.

Temperatures continue to not be a big talking point in the short
term period, which is certainly a plus for this time of year. High
temperatures will remain in the lower 90s with lows in the 70s. Heat
index values will increase to between 105 and 109 tomorrow as
dewpoints increase.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate to major risk for heat-
related impacts

The  synoptic pattern over the long term period will feature a mid-
level high over west TX Sunday evening that expands over our CWA
resulting in increasing pressure aloft. The high pressure system
will slowly retrograde westward to the Desert Southwest throughout
the week. The area of high pressure will promote clearer skies and
warmer temperatures.

Precipitation chances remain in the forecast almost daily next week
as PWAT`s remain well above normal (~+2SD) with GEFS Mean ensemble
values for the forecasted period approaching normal levels mid-week
to around 1.70". There`s a low to medium (20-55%) chance for
showers/thunderstorms Monday, followed by low-end chances (~15-25%)
through the end of the period.

As our region is under the influence of high pressure, increasing
lower level temperatures and moisture will lead to rising heat index
values to around 110 degrees over the southern Coastal Bend to the
Coastal Plains and Brush Country around mid-week through the end of
the period. These conditions will result in a moderate risk for heat-
related impacts across the region for much of next week but will
introduce a Major risk toward the end of the week.

Lastly, Minor coastal flooding will continue to be a concern at
least through mid-week. P-ETSS guidance has seas gradually
decreasing but still around ~2 ft MSL.

Overall, not much change in the forecast but there is still model
uncertainty regarding the location and strength of the high pressure
system and the area of low pressure over the Gulf. Please stay tuned

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period with
isolated to scattered showers around. Coverage of showers may
increase a bit late tonight into Sunday morning, though showers
would be brief. These could lead to periods of MVFR conditions
with lowered CIGS and reduced VIS. Cannot rule out some spotty fog
around KALI between 09-13Z. Generally light winds are forecast
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Southeasterly winds increase to moderate levels today as a
disturbance passes in the Bay of Campeche. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected today and again tomorrow. Expect
mainly a weak to moderate onshore flow to persist Sunday
through next week accompanied by a low to medium chance (30-45%)
of showers and thunderstorms Monday, followed by a low (15-25%)
chance for showers the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  78  91  79 /  20  30  50  10
Victoria          90  75  91  76 /  10   0  30   0
Laredo            91  76  91  76 /  50  20  60  20
Alice             90  76  91  75 /  20  20  50  10
Rockport          91  80  91  81 /  20  30  40  10
Cotulla           93  77  93  78 /  10   0  30  10
Kingsville        90  77  91  78 /  30  40  60  10
Navy Corpus       88  81  89  82 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ245-342>347-
     442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...CLM/93