471
FXUS64 KCRP 220529
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Deep moisture continues to stream into the region today,
characterized by PWAT values of 1.75 - 2". As a result, showers
continue to develop across South Texas. While these are producing
heavy rain, they are short lived. The best chance for continued
precipitation through this evening will be across Brush Country
with lesser chances towards the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend
area. Isolated to scattered storms will continue to be
possible area wide through Saturday.

The Coastal Flood Warning remains in effect through this evening.
A few locations continue to see moderate flooding as of this
afternoon, though a transition to minor flooding is expected area
wide tonight, which would warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory through
the remainder of the short term period. The rip current risk will
remain high through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

- Monitoring the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential
  tropical development

- Dangerous heat returns with a moderate risk for heat-related
impacts

A renewed fetch of deep tropical moisture will move into South
Texas Saturday night with PWAT values nearing 2.5 inches across
southern portions of the area and 2.25 inches elsewhere. This will
be associated with a tropical disturbance in the Bay of Campeche.
The NHC currently gives this a 50% chance of developing into a
tropical cyclone in the next two days and a 60% chance over the
next 7 days.

Should this system develop, it will likely head towards the Mexico
Coast. However, with a broad area of high pressure developing over
the region, this should help to keep the majority of the impacts
south of the region, with perhaps the exception of more widespread
rain chances. Most of the guidance currently keeps the brunt of
the precipitation over Deep South Texas and Northeastern Mexico
with much less impressive amounts across our region.

Just how far north this precipitation makes it will also have an
impact on our cloud cover and thus our temperatures. If the brunt
of the precipitation remains south, then dangerous heat will
likely develop next week with heat indices exceeding 110 degrees
for many locations during much of the week.

There remains a lot of uncertainty with the forecast beyond this
weekend, but as the system moves over the Gulf this weekend,
things should start to become more clear.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF cycle, with brief
periods of MVFR ceilings for Brush Country between 10Z and 14Z.
There is also a low chance for some patchy fog over the Coastal
Plains and Victoria Crossroads between 09Z and 14Z so a TEMPO for
MVFR visibility has been included. Otherwise, light to moderate
east to southeast winds are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 110 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Wave heights continue to gradually subside, but will remain rough
into this evening. Small craft advisory conditions are expected to
end by 7PM this evening, so the Small Craft Advisory will likely
be allowed to expire at that time. Expect a light to moderate
onshore flow to persist through the weekend. Scattered showers
will remain in the forecast through early next week. Weak to
moderate onshore flow is expected through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    78  90  78  91 /  30  40  30  60
Victoria          74  91  74  90 /  10  10  10  40
Laredo            76  90  76  91 /  20  50  20  60
Alice             75  90  76  91 /  30  40  20  70
Rockport          81  91  81  92 /  30  30  30  50
Cotulla           76  92  76  94 /  10  20   0  30
Kingsville        76  90  77  90 /  40  50  40  70
Navy Corpus       82  89  82  89 /  40  50  50  70

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLM
LONG TERM....CLM
AVIATION...LS/77